IPC Technical Breakdown Deepens: Sellers in Full Control as 65,000 Support Crumbles and 52-Week Low Looms

The technical picture for the IPC is now clear: a confirmed downtrend is in full swing. The index closed last week at 65,648.91, marking its fourth consecutive weekly loss. That's the worst streak since mid-2024, showing the selling pressure has been persistent and unrelenting.

The breakdown accelerated this week as the index broke decisively below the key 65,000 psychological and technical support level. That level was a major floor, and its breach opens the path toward the next major target. The 52-week low at 63,802.14 is now firmly in play, representing a potential 2.5% downside from current levels.

On the daily charts, the bearish momentum is overwhelming. The technical outlook shows a "Strong Sell" signal with a stark imbalance in moving average signals: 10 sell signals versus 2 buy signals. The Relative Strength Index sits at 33, deep in oversold territory, but that often signals exhaustion rather than a reversal. For now, the dominant trend is down, and the market is showing no signs of buying the dip. The setup is one of a broken support and a clear path lower.

Volume and Momentum: Confirming the Seller Control

The volume and momentum indicators confirm that sellers are firmly in control. The index is trading well below all major moving averages, from the short-term MA5 to the long-term MA200. This complete breakdown of the trend structure is a classic sign of a bearish market, where price action is consistently rejecting any attempt to rally higher. The 14-day RSI sits at 33.0, deep in oversold territory. That reading often signals exhaustion, but in a strong downtrend, oversold conditions can persist or even intensify as selling pressure overwhelms buyers.

On the weekly chart, the losses are heavy and broad-based. The index is down 8.06% from its February close, with key components like Peñoles and Grupo México leading the declines. This isn't a minor correction; it's a sustained capitulation. The volume profile shows the selling has been consistent, with the index breaking below the 65,000 support level on significant volume earlier this week. That volume confirmed the breakdown and fueled the move toward the next major target at the 52-week low.

The momentum is overwhelmingly negative. The MACD is deeply in negative territory, and the moving average signal is a stark 10 sell signals versus 2 buy signals. For a technical trader, this is a clear signal to stay on the sidelines or consider short positions. The oversold RSI is a potential contrarian indicator, but it only matters if the price action shows a reversal. Right now, the price is making lower highs and lower lows, and the volume confirms the selling pressure. The setup suggests the downtrend is likely to continue until the index shows a decisive break above the 65,000 level on strong volume, which would signal a shift in momentum. Until then, the seller control is intact.

Catalysts and Key Levels to Watch

The immediate technical battle lines are clear. The index broke below the 52-week low at 63,802.14 earlier this week, turning that level into the new critical support. A confirmed break below here would target the next major psychological zone at 63,000. That move would signal the downtrend has fully taken hold, with no immediate floor in sight. The market is now in a pure sell-off mode, where each new low is the next target.

On the flip side, the path for a reversal runs through the 65,000 level. That was the key weekly support that broke, and it now acts as the primary resistance. For the downtrend to stall, the index needs to show a decisive break above this level on strong volume. A retest of the 65,648.91 weekly close would be the first sign of buyer conviction returning, but it's a high bar given the current momentum.

External factors are adding direct pressure. The Mexican peso is under strain, with the USD/MXN spot near 18.00. A weaker peso makes imports more expensive and can fuel inflation, pressuring Banxico's policy rate and the broader market. At the same time, Brent crude oil is trading above $100. While this benefits energy exporters, it also increases input costs for non-energy firms and can exacerbate the peso's depreciation. This combination of a weak currency and high oil prices creates a classic headwind for the local market, making it harder for the IPC to find a floor. The setup is one of technical breakdown meeting external pressure, favoring a continuation of the downside until the 65,000 resistance is convincingly broken.