Iovance Skyrockets 29.23%—Is This the Start of a Biotech Bull Run?

Summary
• Iovance (IOVA) surges 29.23% intraday to $4.045, defying a 70% annual slump.
• FDA rejects Replimune’s RP1, removing IOVA’s top melanoma competitor.
• Reddit’s 800K YOLO investor predicts $10–$15 price target amid 34.5% short interest.

Iovance Biotherapeutics has ignited a frenzy in the biotech sector with a staggering 29.23% intraday rally, defying a 70% annual slump. The surge follows a pivotal FDA rejection of Replimune’s RP1, a major competitive threat, and a viral Reddit post from a retail investor who sees this as the start of a year-long short squeeze. With a 34.5% short interest and a $25 price target from Chardan Capital, IOVA’s technical and fundamental momentum is capturing market attention.

FDA Rejection of Replimune's RP1 Sparks Biotech Bull Run
The FDA’s complete response letter for Replimune’s RP1 therapy—a direct competitor to Iovance’s Amtagvi in late-stage melanoma—has catalyzed a surge in IOVA’s share price. This rejection removes a critical competitive threat, allowing Amtagvi to consolidate its market position. Compounding this, a Reddit post by a 800K YOLO investor highlights IOVA’s 49% real-world response rate in multi-line therapy patients and a 60.9% rate for earlier-stage cases, bolstering confidence in its commercial potential. The stock’s 34.5% short interest and limited retail float (0.32%) further amplify the technical setup for a short squeeze, as hedge funds face mounting pressure from accelerating fundamentals.

Biotech Sector Mixed as AMGN Trails IOVA’s Volatility
Options Playbook: Leverage Volatility with High-Gamma Calls
• MACD: 0.145 (bullish divergence), RSI: 83.25 (overbought), Bollinger Upper: $2.69 (price at 3.8952 far above)
• 200-day MA: $5.39 (price trading at 3.8952, below), Support/Resistance: 1.7476–1.7764 (short-term), 1.66–1.8724 (long-term)

IOVA’s technicals scream short-term bullish momentum, with RSI in overbought territory and MACD forming a positive histogram. The stock’s 34.5% short interest and 0.32% retail float create a high-probability short-squeeze scenario, particularly if the $4 level holds. For leveraged exposure, consider the following options:

• IOVA20250801C4
- Call, $4 strike, 2025-08-01 expiry
- IV Ratio: 249.22% (extreme volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 5.82% (high gearing)
- Delta: 0.6003 (moderate directional sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.040061 (moderate time decay)
- Turnover: $200,315 (liquid)IOVA breaches $4, with high gamma amplifying gains in a rally. At a 5% upside (ST = $4.09), the payoff would be $0.09 per share. With 5.82% leverage, this could represent a 178% return if held to expiry.

• IOVA20250919C4
- Call, $4 strike, 2025-09-19 expiry
- IV Ratio: 173.57% (elevated)
- Leverage Ratio: 3.54% (moderate gearing)
- Delta: 0.6501 (high directional sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.010030 (low time decay)
- Turnover: $409,373 (liquid)
If $4 breaks, IOVA20250801C4 offers short-term explosive potential. Aggressive bulls may consider IOVA20250919C4.5 into a bounce above $4.5.

Backtest Iovance Stock Performance
The performance of IOVA after a 29% intraday increase has been mixed. While the stock showed a positive reaction initially, with a maximum return of -0.03% observed over 30 days, the overall trend was negative, with a 1.31% return over 30 days. This suggests that investors may have taken profits or adjusted their positions following the surge, leading to a decline in the stock's price in the short term.

Short-Squeeze Catalyst: Act Before Institutional Covering
Iovance’s 29.23% intraday surge is underpinned by a perfect storm of regulatory, fundamental, and technical catalysts. The FDA’s rejection of Replimune’s RP1 and Amtagvi’s 49% real-world ORR create a durable competitive moat, while 34.5% short interest sets the stage for a potential squeeze. With RSI overbought and MACD bullish, the stock is primed to test its 52W high of $12.50—though near-term resistance at $4.23 must hold. Investors should monitor Amgen (AMGN, +0.70%) as a sector benchmark but prioritize IOVA’s unique short-squeeze narrative. Act now: Buy the $4 strike calls (IOVA20250801C4) before institutional covering drives volatility lower.