IoTeX/Yen Market Overview: Volatility Peaks and Reversal Signals

• IOTXJPY traded in a tight range early before surging to ¥2.257, followed by a consolidation phase.
• Price found critical support near ¥2.14 and ¥2.129 multiple times, indicating short-term floor levels.
• Volatility surged during the 02:15–02:45 ET period with a 3.4% range and massive volume spikes.
• RSI suggests overbought conditions at ¥2.257 and oversold at ¥2.129, signaling potential reversals.
• MACD crossed bullish during the 02:00–03:00 ET period but failed to confirm a sustained rally.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-10-13, IOTXJPY opened at ¥1.987 and reached a high of ¥2.257 before closing at ¥2.163 at 12:00 ET. The pair traded within a ¥1.987–¥2.257 range with total volume of 4,690,711 IOTX and a notional turnover of ¥9,645,540. The price action reflected a volatile 24-hour session, driven by sharp rebounds off ¥2.14 and ¥2.129.

Key support levels formed around ¥2.14 and ¥2.129, where price bounced multiple times without breaking through decisively. Resistance was observed at ¥2.196 and ¥2.228, with a failed attempt to close above ¥2.228 indicating ongoing bearish pressure. A notable bullish engulfing pattern emerged near ¥2.15–¥2.176 during the 07:45–08:00 ET window, suggesting potential short-term reversals.

Price spent much of the session inside the upper and lower Bollinger Bands, reflecting high volatility. The bands contracted briefly at ¥2.15 before expanding during the ¥2.208–¥2.232 range. RSI oscillated between overbought (¥2.257) and oversold (¥2.129) levels, signaling short-term reversal risks. MACD turned positive during the 02:00–03:00 ET period but failed to sustain a bullish cross above the signal line, hinting at indecisiveness.

Volume surged during the ¥2.208–¥2.232 consolidation phase, reaching 308,571 IOTX traded at ¥2.232. Turnover also spiked during that time, confirming the price action. However, the divergence between price and volume during the ¥2.14–¥2.171 rebound suggests weaker conviction on the upside. A bearish divergence in RSI at ¥2.232 implies a potential retest of ¥2.14 could be ahead.

Backtest Hypothesis
The data-driven reversal patterns observed, including the bullish engulfing and RSI divergences, could be used in a backtesting framework. For example, a strategy might look to enter long positions on confirmed bullish engulfing patterns with RSI below 30 and MACD crossing above the signal line, while shorting on bearish divergences and overbought RSI. A 5-day holding period would test the strength of these signals in the IOTXJPY pair. Given the pair’s sensitivity to ¥2.14 and ¥2.129, these levels could serve as strategic stop-loss and take-profit targets in a short-term trading system.