IoTeX/Yen Market Overview

• Price declined from a high of ¥3.999 to a low of ¥3.919 over 24 hours, ending near ¥3.933
• A large bearish candle formed in the early afternoon, signaling strong downward pressure
• RSI dropped below 30, suggesting oversold conditions and potential for a near-term bounce
• Volume spiked during the midday sell-off, confirming bearish momentum

IoTeX/Yen (IOTXJPY) opened at ¥3.974 on 2025-09-15 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of ¥3.999, and a low of ¥3.919, closing at ¥3.933 on 2025-09-16 at 12:00 ET. Total traded volume was 916,736 units and turnover was ¥3,602,739 over the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

Price action exhibited a bearish bias, with a large bearish candle on 2025-09-16 at 14:15 ET showing a sharp drop from ¥3.941 to ¥3.919, reflecting strong selling pressure. A possible support area formed around ¥3.919–¥3.925, with a resistance level likely near ¥3.950–¥3.955. A bearish engulfing pattern appears on the 15-minute chart during the late afternoon, signaling a continuation of the downtrend. A doji formed near ¥3.945 in the evening, indicating indecision and potential for a short-term consolidation phase.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart shows the price below both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA, reinforcing the bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the price remains above the 200-SMA, suggesting the long-term trend is still slightly bullish. The 50-SMA and 100-SMA are closely aligned near ¥3.940, indicating a potential pivot point for near-term direction.

MACD & RSI

The MACD on the 15-minute chart crossed below zero and remained negative throughout the 24-hour period, confirming bearish momentum. RSI dropped to 30 at 16:00 ET, signaling an oversold condition, which could trigger a short-term bounce. However, as RSI remains below 40, a deeper pullback cannot be ruled out.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion during the afternoon sell-off, with price dropping below the lower band, indicating high volatility. The upper band hovered around ¥3.960–¥3.970, and the lower band drifted down to ¥3.920. Price has since bounced back slightly but remains within the band, suggesting a period of consolidation or sideways trading is likely.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the midday sell-off, with one candle showing a volume of 32,318 units and a sharp decline from ¥3.941 to ¥3.919. This suggests strong conviction among sellers. Later in the day, volume subsided, but a late rally in the afternoon brought a moderate increase in turnover, with price rising from ¥3.921 to ¥3.933. The volume and price action were aligned during the sell-off but began to diverge in the late trading hours, which may hint at weakening bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key 15-minute swing from ¥3.919 to ¥3.951, 38.2% and 61.8% levels fall around ¥3.934 and ¥3.947, respectively. On the daily chart, the retracement levels for the broader move from ¥3.919 to ¥3.999 suggest key psychological levels at ¥3.959 and ¥3.985. Price appears to find support at the 38.2% level, suggesting possible near-term stability if it holds.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy utilizing the combination of RSI (14), 20-EMA, and volume confirmation could offer a structured approach to identifying entry and exit points. Specifically, a trade signal is generated when RSI dips below 30, price closes below the 20-EMA, and volume increases by at least 50% above average levels. This setup was observed on 2025-09-16 during the early afternoon sell-off, with RSI dropping below 30, price breaking the 20-EMA, and volume surging. If this condition is confirmed, a short-term short position with a stop above the 38.2% Fib level could be considered. The recent doji and minor rally in the late afternoon may signal a potential reversal setup for traders looking to capitalize on a bounce.