IoTeX/Yen Market Overview: 2025-10-20

• IOTXJPY declined sharply from 1.949 to 1.895 in overnight trading, showing bearish dominance.
• Volume surged at 1.895 and 1.919, coinciding with price reversals.
• RSI and MACD indicate bearish momentum with potential oversold conditions emerging.
• Bollinger Bands show price consolidating near the lower band at 1.85–1.86.
• Fibonacci 61.8% retracement near 1.87–1.88 may trigger a short-term bounce.

The IOTXJPY pair opened at 1.949 at 12:00 ET-1 and fell to a 24-hour low of 1.846, closing at 1.846 at 12:00 ET. Total traded volume amounted to 438,024.0 units, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥810,863. The price action reflected bearish continuation, with a sharp decline in the overnight session and consolidation into the morning.

Underlying structure suggests a strong bearish bias. The price has formed several bearish patterns, including a strong engulfing pattern at 1.919–1.911 and a key low at 1.873, which acted as a temporary floor before further declines. Resistance appears to have emerged near 1.895–1.903, where the price briefly rebounded before resuming downward momentum. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have been bearishly aligned, reinforcing the downward trend. Daily moving averages, including the 50/100/200 SMA, are also bearish but have not yet crossed into the range of current support levels.

The MACD histogram showed a bearish crossover with a negative divergence, suggesting continued selling pressure. RSI has dipped into the 30–35 range, indicating potential oversold conditions, though without a clear reversal sign. Bollinger Bands are currently constricting at the lower band, signaling a potential break or consolidation phase. Price has remained near the lower band for much of the day, with a 1.855–1.846 range forming as a short-term floor. A break below 1.846 could accelerate the move toward the next support at 1.83–1.825.

Fibonacci retracement levels have been applied to the recent swing from 1.949 to 1.846. The 61.8% level sits near 1.87–1.88, which could act as a potential short-term bounce zone. If the price fails to hold above this level, it may continue toward the 78.6% level at around 1.855. Daily Fibonacci levels from the broader swing suggest a potential test of 1.80–1.82 in the next 24–48 hours.

The volume profile confirms the bearish narrative, with heavy trading at 1.895 and 1.919, but a noticeable drop-off near the lower range at 1.855–1.846. This suggests potential exhaustion in the bearish move, though it could also indicate a buildup for further selling. The divergence between price and volume suggests caution—high turnover at key levels has not always resulted in strong reversals.

Looking ahead, IOTXJPY could consolidate near the 1.855–1.846 range or test the 1.83–1.825 level if the bearish bias continues. A reversal above 1.87–1.88 may signal a short-term bounce. Investors should watch for a confirmation of the bearish trend or a reversal in momentum, particularly through MACD and RSI behavior.

Backtest Hypothesis

The Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern is a key reversal indicator often used to anticipate downward momentum. While the automated technical-indicator database returned an error when attempting to retrieve pre-computed dates for IOTXJPY, we can still perform a manual backtest by detecting the pattern from raw OHLC data. The pattern is defined by a large bearish candle that fully engulfs the previous bullish candle, often signaling a shift in sentiment. Using the provided 15-minute OHLC data, we can locally compute and flag occurrences of this pattern. Once identified, the backtest can assess the average return over the following 1–5 days, offering insights into the pattern’s predictive value for IOTXJPY. A local OHLC-based detection approach would allow us to proceed without external dependencies.