IoTeX/Yen (IOTXJPY) Market Overview: Volatile Downtrend Amid High-Volume Breakdowns

• IOTXJPY declined sharply from ¥4.076 to ¥3.790 amid explosive volume surges.
• A bearish divergence emerged in RSI and MACD, signaling potential exhaustion or deepening momentum.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with Bollinger Bands widening and price trading near the lower band.
• High-volume breakdowns occurred below ¥4.057, triggering a sustained bearish trend.
• Fibonacci retracement levels suggest potential support near ¥3.842 and ¥3.766.

The IOTXJPY pair opened at ¥4.076 on September 4, 2025, and closed at ¥3.790 by 12:00 ET on September 5. The pair fell to an intraday low of ¥3.766, while the high remained at ¥4.079. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 2,467,703, and notional turnover was ¥9,701,291. Price action suggests a sharp bearish reversal driven by increased volatility and high-volume selling.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candlestick pattern showed a bearish breakdown below ¥4.057, confirmed by a gap down and high-volume candles. A series of lower lows and lower highs formed a clear downtrend channel, with key support levels emerging at ¥4.057, ¥4.043, and ¥3.919. A doji appeared around ¥4.062, hinting at indecision before the bearish move. The price action appears to be consolidating near ¥3.79–3.83 after the breakdown, with potential for a continuation of the trend or a short-term bounce within this range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both below the price by the end of the period, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 20 SMA crossed below the 50 SMA, confirming a death cross in the short term. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 SMA lines suggest continued bearish pressure, with the price remaining well below all three, indicating a long-term downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative and crossed below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. A bearish histogram indicated intensifying selling pressure. RSI declined to 22, suggesting oversold conditions, though the prolonged move lower may indicate continued bearish momentum rather than a rebound. The divergence between MACD and price suggests the bearish trend could extend further unless a strong reversal candle forms.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded as volatility increased, with the price closing near the lower band. This suggests oversold conditions and potential for a bounce within the band, but the high volume and strong bearish sentiment indicate a break of the lower band is more likely. The band contraction earlier in the session hinted at potential range expansion, which was confirmed by the sharp breakdown.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged near ¥4.057 and ¥3.919, confirming key breakdown levels. Notional turnover aligned with price declines, suggesting coordinated selling pressure rather than panic. Divergences were not observed between volume and price, indicating strong confirmation of the bearish move. The sharp increase in volume during the breakdown below ¥4.057 suggests institutional or algorithmic selling.

Fibonacci Retracements

The recent 15-minute swing from ¥4.076 to ¥3.790 identified potential support levels at 38.2% (¥3.942), 50% (¥3.933), and 61.8% (¥3.823). The price is now testing the ¥3.842–3.766 range, which corresponds to major daily Fibonacci levels. A break below ¥3.766 could lead to further retracements toward ¥3.66 and potentially ¥3.50, depending on follow-through volume.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the identified breakdown structure and Fibonacci support levels, a backtesting strategy could target a short entry near ¥3.83–3.85 with a stop above ¥3.90 and a target at ¥3.72–3.66. The volume profile confirms the validity of the breakdown, and the RSI and MACD suggest continued bearish momentum. A high-probability trade would involve managing the position as long as the price remains below ¥3.90 and the 50-period SMA continues to trend lower.