IoTeX/Yen (IOTXJPY) Market Overview: Strong Bullish Breakout Amid Elevated Volatility

• Price surged from ¥1.754 to ¥1.836 in 24 hours, driven by a sharp late-session rally.
• A key breakout above ¥1.811 suggests strengthening bullish momentum.
• Volatility spiked late in the session, with volume surging to 40224 IOTX at peak.
• RSI and MACD show overbought conditions, signaling potential for near-term correction.
• Strong volume confirmed the ¥1.836 high, but divergence may hint at short-term exhaustion.

Market Overview

IoTeX/Yen (IOTXJPY) opened at ¥1.754 on 2025-10-25 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of ¥1.836 by 2025-10-26 at 12:45 ET, and closed the 24-hour period at ¥1.811 at 12:00 ET. The total volume of IOTX traded during this time was 543,173.0, with notional turnover amounting to ¥950,777. The price action showed a strong late-day bullish reversal and a notable breakout from a consolidation range.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a decisive breakout above ¥1.811, following a period of consolidation. A large bullish engulfing pattern formed between 11:45 and 12:00 ET, which confirmed a shift in momentum. The price also showed a key retest of the ¥1.805 level, which acted as dynamic support. A Bearish Engulfing pattern appeared at 13:15 ET, potentially signaling a short-term reversal. Traders should monitor the ¥1.811 level as key psychological and support/resistance crossover.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both bullish, supporting the recent price rally. For the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period MAs were aligned in a bullish trend, with the price above all of them. This alignment suggests that the longer-term trend remains intact, though the recent sharp rise may prompt a pullback toward the 50-day MA for confluence.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned positive in the late hours of the session, confirming bullish momentum, while the signal line crossed above zero. RSI climbed into overbought territory above 70 and peaked near 82, indicating that the rally may be exhausting. However, RSI did not show immediate signs of topping. The divergence between RSI and price is limited, but a reversal in RSI could signal a near-term pullback.

Bollinger Bands expanded sharply during the breakout, with the price moving above the upper band. This expansion suggests increased volatility and potential for short-term profit-taking. A retest of the upper band could offer a high-probability resistance level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakout above ¥1.811, with a massive 40224 IOTX traded at 11:45 ET. The subsequent rally at 12:45 ET saw 51065 IOTX traded, the highest volume of the 24-hour period. This volume confirmed the breakout, but the lack of follow-through beyond ¥1.836 may suggest diminishing conviction. Turnover increased in tandem with volume, with no signs of divergence observed.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the ¥1.836 high marked a 61.8% retracement of the prior downward swing. The ¥1.811 level corresponds to the 50% retracement, suggesting a potential area of consolidation. On the daily chart, the recent move from ¥1.754 to ¥1.836 aligns with the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels of the longer-term uptrend, indicating key levels for possible continuation or reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed Bearish Engulfing pattern at 13:15 ET and the overbought RSI, it would be valuable to backtest the effectiveness of a strategy targeting such patterns in the IOTXJPY pair. However, due to the unavailability of reliable data for this specific ticker, we must clarify which price series to use for the analysis. The three viable options include:

1. IOTX quoted in USD (e.g., “IOTXUSD”) – This pair is commonly available and suitable for most technical analysis tools.
2. IOTX quoted in USDT (e.g., “IOTXUSDT”) – This is the most liquid and stable pair for IOTX.
3. A specific exchange symbol – For instance, IOTXUSDT on Binance or IOTXUSD on Kraken.

Once a confirmed and data-supported ticker is provided, I can run a historical backtest of the Bearish Engulfing pattern from January 1, 2022, to today, and assess its predictive power. This would allow us to quantify potential returns and risks associated with this pattern on the IOTX pair.