IoTeX/Yen (IOTXJPY) Market Overview

• IOTXJPY dropped from 3.65 to 3.578, then surged to 3.644, forming bullish reversal and bearish exhaustion patterns.
• High volume during the morning ET breakout suggests strong conviction behind the move higher.
• RSI hit overbought territory in late AM, while Bollinger Bands expanded, indicating rising volatility.
• Price remained above the 20-period SMA for most of the session, with a late afternoon pullback below.
• Turnover spiked to ~¥3.06M during the peak move up, showing accumulation ahead of the close.

The IOTXJPY pair opened at 3.494 on October 5 at 16:00 ET and closed at 3.578 at 12:00 ET on October 6, reaching a high of 3.65 and a low of 3.435 during the 24-hour period. The total volume traded was 724,494 IOTX, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥2.45 million. The session saw a clear shift in momentum, with a sharp bearish decline followed by a strong bullish rebound.

The structure of the price action displayed clear support and resistance levels throughout the session. A key support level appeared around 3.435–3.44, where the price found a floor after a sharp decline. From there, price rallied toward 3.506 and 3.537, which acted as short-term resistances. A notable bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 23:30 ET, confirming the start of a recovery. Later, a doji at 00:00 ET suggested indecision before a strong continuation higher. The price ultimately found a new short-term peak at 3.65, forming a potential topping structure as the session progressed.

The 20-period and 50-period SMAs provided directional context for the 15-minute chart, with the price spending much of the session above the 20SMA. However, late in the afternoon, the price closed below the 20SMA, signaling caution. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA appears near 3.56, and the 100-period SMA near 3.53, suggesting the pair is in consolidation above its mid-term support. The 200-period SMA at 3.505 offers a critical long-term support level. The price appears to be in a tight range between these averages, with potential for a breakout.

The momentum indicators showed mixed signals. RSI surged above 70 during the early AM hours, indicating overbought conditions and a potential pullback. However, price continued higher, suggesting strong conviction. MACD remained positive during the recovery, confirming the bullish move. Bollinger Bands expanded during the sharp rally, reflecting increased volatility. The price closed near the upper band, indicating a possible exhaustion of buying pressure. Fibonacci retracements highlighted 3.57 as a key 61.8% level in the recent bullish move from 3.44 to 3.65, which may offer support in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis
A possible short-term strategy could involve a breakout of the 3.578–3.585 consolidation range observed in the afternoon and early evening. A long entry could be triggered above 3.585 with a stop below the recent low at 3.578. The target for this trade could be 3.60–3.61, aligning with the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels. Alternatively, a short trade could be considered if the price breaks below 3.578, targeting the 3.56 level and then 3.54. This approach would be supported by RSI divergence and a potential bearish engulfing pattern. However, given the recent volatility and mixed signals from the indicators, confirmation of the breakout on high volume would be key to increasing confidence in the trade.