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• Price bounced off key support around 1.64–1.65 and tested 1.70–1.72 resistance.
• Bullish faded as RSI approached overbought territory.
• Volatility dipped in late hours, with price consolidation near 1.67–1.68.
• High turnover during midday signaled mixed market sentiment.
IOTXJPY opened at 1.641 at 12:00 ET-1 and reached a high of 1.745, before consolidating and closing at 1.675 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour window was 2.76 million, with notional turnover at approximately 4.67 million JPY. Price action exhibited a sharp rebound from the 1.64–1.65 support range, suggesting strong short-term buying pressure.
The 15-minute chart displayed a bullish breakout in the early hours but failed to maintain above 1.72, with bearish pressure reemerging in the late morning and afternoon. A key bullish engulfing pattern appeared at 02:30 ET, but it was quickly reversed, indicating limited conviction. RSI surged toward overbought territory during the morning highs but retraced downward, signaling potential exhaustion in the rally.
Bollinger Bands expanded during the 1.70–1.74 range and began to contract by the late afternoon, pointing to a potential shift in volatility. A 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA briefly at 04:15 ET, forming a short-term golden cross that failed to sustain. The 50/100/200 MA alignment on the daily chart showed a mixed trend, with the 50-period line slightly above the 200-period, suggesting a tentative bullish tilt.
MACD lines diverged during the afternoon, with the histogram shrinking despite continued volume. This may indicate a weakening trend. Fibonacci retracements highlighted key levels at 1.66 (38.2%), 1.68 (61.8%), and 1.70 (78.6%) as critical for near-term direction. A bearish reversal candle at 06:45 ET capped the rebound attempt, reinforcing the possibility of a pullback toward 1.64 support in the next 24 hours.
Backtest Hypothesis
To refine a potential trading strategy, a backtest was attempted for the Bullish Engulfing pattern on IOTXJPY using 15-minute OHLC data. Unfortunately, the data source returned an error due to the lack of base information for the symbol IOTXJPY. This is likely because the requested symbol format or exchange-specific ticker was not recognized by the data vendor. To proceed with the backtest, it is necessary to either confirm the exact exchange-specific symbol (e.g., BINANCE:IOTXUSDT, BITFINEX:IOTXJPY, etc.), opt for an alternative pair (e.g., IOTX-USD converted to JPY), or provide manually identified Bullish Engulfing signal dates. Once the correct data feed is established, the backtest can proceed by identifying all confirmed patterns from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-08, then evaluating a 3-day holding period to assess performance metrics such as win rate, average return, and drawdown.
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