IOTA Drops 25% In 2025, Faces 9.8% Downside Risk

IOTA, a cryptocurrency once celebrated for its fee-less transaction model and unique Tangle architecture, is currently facing significant pressure. As of June 21, 2025, the price of IOTA is trading at $0.1608, nearing a major support zone after weeks of steady decline. The daily chart indicates a challenging outlook for bullish traders unless key levels hold. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 31.61, just above the 30-mark that typically signals an oversold condition. Historically, when the RSI dipped below 30 in early April, it was followed by a 38% rally in the subsequent 15 days. If this pattern repeats, IOTA could experience a technical bounce. However, broader market weakness persists, casting doubt on a bullish reversal.

Looking at the Fibonacci retracement from the recent swing low of $0.1200 to the swing high of $0.2550, IOTA is hovering near the 0.786 retracement level, around $0.1600. This level is crucial for bulls. A break below this could expose the next key support at $0.1450, followed by $0.1200, the year’s low. If IOTA drops from $0.1608 to $0.1450, that represents a potential 9.8% downside. If it slips further to $0.1200, the decline widens to 25.38%. On the upside, immediate resistance lies around $0.1800, aligning with the 0.618 Fib level. Beyond that, $0.2000 and $0.2150 act as stronger resistance zones. If buyers regain momentum, a rally toward $0.2000 could offer a 24.4% gain from current levels. However, the candle structure does not yet show strong bullish formations, with recent candles exhibiting long bodies and no upper wicks, indicating continuous selling pressure.

The chart reveals a rounded top pattern that began forming in late May, transitioning from bullish green candles to a stream of red. The trend has remained consistently bearish, with no higher highs or higher lows in recent sessions. For a bullish reversal, IOTA must close above $0.1800 on strong volume, forming a higher low to break the bearish structure. In the next 7–14 days, if $0.1600 fails as support, IOTA could quickly test $0.1450 or even $0.1200. Conversely, if the RSI bounces off the oversold region and bulls manage a recovery, we could see a test of $0.1800 and possibly $0.2000. The forecast includes a bearish scenario of dropping to $0.1450, then $0.1200, a bullish scenario of bouncing to $0.1800 and stretching toward $0.2000, and a neutral likelihood of a sideways move between $0.1550 and $0.1700. IOTA is at a critical juncture. While the RSI suggests a bounce may be near, price action remains in a clear downtrend. Traders should watch the $0.1600 level closely. A breakdown here could bring deeper losses, while a bounce backed by volume might offer short-term gains. For long-term holders, this zone may be a strategic accumulation point, but with tight stop losses in place.