IOST/Tether Market Overview (2025-09-26)

• IOST/Tether traded in a tight range early before breaking lower, finding temporary support near $0.00294
• Price retested key Fibonacci and Bollinger Band levels, with volume confirming bearish momentum
• MACD remained negative with bearish divergence, RSI near oversold, suggesting possible short-term bounce

IOST/Tether (IOSTUSDT) opened at $0.003014 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.003009 on 2025-09-26 at 12:00 ET, with a low of $0.002928 and a high of $0.003015. Total volume for the 24-hour period reached 77,642,351 IOST, with a notional turnover of $234,071. The pair exhibited a distinct bearish bias, especially from 17:30 to 20:00 ET, followed by a consolidation phase.

Structure & Formations

Price moved within a descending channel after the key 17:30 ET 15-minute candle recorded a bearish engulfing pattern at $0.002986. Multiple bearish hammers appeared between 18:15–19:30 ET as the pair found temporary support, but bearish momentum persisted. A doji appeared at $0.002992 on 19:45 ET, signaling indecision. Price then tested the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.002946 before consolidating, suggesting this may act as a short-term floor.

Moving Averages & MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, IOSTUSDT closed below both the 20SMA and 50SMA, with MACD remaining in negative territory. The MACD histogram contracted after the 17:30 ET candle but expanded again after 21:00 ET, confirming bearish momentum. RSI dropped to 28 on 23:45 ET, indicating oversold conditions, but failed to trigger a meaningful rebound. Daily MAs (50, 100, 200) remain bearish, with the price trending below all.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Volatility remained elevated throughout the session, with the Bollinger Band width expanding after 17:30 ET. Price consistently traded near the lower band, especially between 17:30–22:30 ET, indicating a bearish trend. A contraction occurred in the late morning (06:00–09:00 ET), followed by a breakout to the downside.

Volume & Turnover Divergence

Volume spiked significantly during the bearish break from 17:30–19:00 ET, peaking at 10.79 million IOST on 18:00 ET. However, volume during the 23:45–00:00 ET consolidation was relatively subdued, suggesting weak follow-through from sellers. Notional turnover mirrored this pattern, with a high of $2,930 on 18:00 ET. A divergence between price and volume occurred after 22:30 ET, indicating potential exhaustion in the downtrend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the 15-minute swing from $0.003015 (high) to $0.002928 (low), key levels were $0.002984 (38.2%), $0.002957 (50%), and $0.002946 (61.8%). Price stalled at the 61.8% level, suggesting a potential bounce zone. On a daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the broader swing from $0.003019 to $0.002982 is near $0.002994—price is approaching this level and may test it in the near term.

Forward-Looking View & Risk

The immediate term appears to offer a potential short-term bounce into $0.00297–$0.00298 if the 61.8% Fibonacci level holds. However, without a strong volume surge and a close above the 50SMA, the downtrend may resume. Traders should remain cautious of further consolidation or a breakdown below $0.002946, which would signal a deeper correction.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish bias and the formation of key candlestick patterns, a possible backtesting strategy could be a short bias with a stop above the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.002946. A target could be set at the 38.2% level at $0.002984, with an exit on a close above $0.002996. This strategy aligns with MACD divergence and RSI oversold conditions, suggesting a potential mean reversion.