IOST/Tether (IOSTUSDT) Market Overview for 2025-09-19

• IOST/Tether traded in a tight range before breaking lower, with a 24-hour low of $0.003310.
• Volume spiked during the late ET sell-off, but turnover failed to confirm sustained bearish conviction.
• A bearish divergence emerged in RSI and MACD as price hit the lower Bollinger Band.
• Key support appears to be forming near the 0.003350 level with multiple retracements clustering there.
• A continuation pattern may develop as price struggles to reclaim the 0.003420–0.003440 range.

IOST/Tether (IOSTUSDT) opened at $0.003427 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at $0.003345 by 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.003483 and a low of $0.003310. Total volume reached 104.99 million IOST, while notional turnover amounted to $359,362. Price action reflected heightened volatility, particularly in the late ET session, with bearish momentum intensifying after 19:00 ET.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish broadening pattern from 0.003440 to 0.003483, before reversing sharply lower. A key bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 0.003462–0.003454 at 19:15 ET, followed by a long lower wick candle at 0.003461–0.003454 at 19:30 ET, signaling rejection at higher levels. A doji appeared at 0.003448–0.003442 at 22:15 ET, indicating indecision before a steep sell-off. Price has since found temporary support near 0.003350–0.003360, with 0.003340–0.003345 looking like a potential key level. A breakdown below this range could target 0.003320–0.003330.

Moving Averages

Short-term 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have diverged significantly, with price closing well below both, suggesting bearish bias. The 50-period MA at ~0.003420 is now acting as a strong resistance zone. On the daily chart, price remains well below the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing a longer-term bearish tilt and potential for further consolidation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative during the early ET sell-off, with a bearish crossover forming at 19:45 ET, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI reached an overbought level of 72 at 01:15 ET but failed to hold above 60, dropping to 34 by 15:15 ET, indicating oversold conditions. A divergence emerged between price and RSI from 15:15 ET onward, where price continued lower while RSI flattened, raising the possibility of a short-term rebound.

Bollinger Bands

Price hit the lower Bollinger Band at 0.003345 around 15:15 ET, with the band width widening significantly during the late ET sell-off, indicating rising volatility. The 20-period Bollinger Band contraction was seen between 19:00–19:30 ET, followed by an aggressive breakout to the downside. If price stays above the lower band, it may consolidate in a range. A close below the band would signal a continuation of the bearish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 10.66 million IOST at 01:15 ET and again to 7.59 million IOST at 09:45 ET, coinciding with price declines, but notional turnover failed to rise proportionally. This divergence suggests that while volume was high, the participation was not robust. The final leg down from 0.003381 to 0.003345 saw elevated volume without a sharp price drop, signaling potential exhaustion of the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key 0.003425–0.003483 move, price found support at the 61.8% level around 0.003440, followed by a breakdown. Further downward movement saw price testing the 50% and 38.2% levels at 0.003399 and 0.003379, respectively, but failed to hold. On the daily chart, the 0.003350–0.003360 range coincides with key Fibonacci retracements from the 0.003440–0.003310 move, suggesting a possible pivot point.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish divergence in RSI and MACD during the late ET sell-off, a potential backtest could involve a short entry on a close below 0.003350, with a stop above the 0.003360–0.003365 range and a target at 0.003320. This strategy would aim to exploit the breakdown in a key Fibonacci and Bollinger Band support area. A modified approach could also include a long setup on a bullish reversal candle at 0.003340–0.003345, provided volume and momentum indicators confirm a rebound. Backtesting over the last 30 days would help assess the win rate and risk-reward profile of these entries in a live market environment.