IonQ Surges 71.32% in Nine Days as Technical Indicators Validate Uptrend

IonQ (IONQ) has surged 4.45% in the most recent session, marking a 71.32% rally over nine consecutive days. This sharp upward momentum suggests strong bullish sentiment, with the stock forming a series of higher highs and higher lows. The recent price action includes multiple bullish candlestick patterns, such as the "Bullish Engulfing" and "Harami" patterns, particularly on days with significant volume spikes. Key support levels can be identified at the 2025-04-08 low of $20.68 and the 2025-06-05 low of $36.66, while critical resistance levels include the 2025-05-22 high of $48.92 and the 2025-01-15 high of $40.50. The price has decisively breached the 2025-09-12 high of $56.07, indicating a potential continuation of the uptrend.

Candlestick Theory

The recent price action features a strong "Rising Window" pattern between September 16 and September 23, 2025, where the stock closed each session above the previous day’s high. This suggests a strong continuation of the bullish trend. Additionally, the "Piercing Line" pattern on September 17, 2025, further reinforces buying pressure. However, the absence of bearish reversal patterns like "Dark Cloud Cover" or "Shooting Star" implies that the immediate trend remains intact. Key support at $62.26 (2025-09-16 close) and resistance at $73.17 (2025-09-22 high) will be critical to monitor for potential breakouts or breakdowns.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (as of September 23, 2025) stands at approximately $44.20, while the 100-day and 200-day averages are around $38.70 and $33.20, respectively. The current price of $75.14 is significantly above all three, indicating a strong short-term and long-term bullish bias. The 50-day MA crossing above the 100-day MA in mid-August 2025 confirmed a "Golden Cross," reinforcing the uptrend. However, the 50-day MA is now diverging from the 200-day MA, suggesting potential exhaustion in the short-term rally. A sustained close below the 50-day MA could trigger a reevaluation of the trend.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD line (12,26,9) has surged into positive territory, with the histogram showing expanding bullish momentum since late August 2025. The signal line crossover in early September 2025 has confirmed a bullish trend, though the MACD’s overextension into positive territory may indicate a potential pullback. The KDJ (Stochastic) indicator shows the stock in overbought territory (K=85, D=78) as of September 23, 2025, suggesting a possible near-term correction. However, the KDJ’s slow stochastic readings have not yet triggered a sell signal, indicating that the uptrend may persist.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands have widened significantly in recent weeks, reflecting increased volatility. The price has consistently traded near the upper band since late August 2025, indicating overbought conditions. A break above the upper band’s expanding channel could signal a continuation of the rally, but a retest of the lower band (currently around $61.45) would likely be required to confirm sustainability. The recent contraction in band width on September 10-12, 2025, followed by a breakout, suggests a period of consolidation prior to the current surge.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged in tandem with the price rally, peaking at 53.8 million shares on September 12, 2025, during the 18.19% jump. This volume surge validates the strength of the bullish move. However, the volume on the most recent session (40.0 million shares) is slightly lower than the peak, which may indicate waning momentum. Divergence between price and volume is not yet evident, but a sustained drop in volume during further advances could signal weakening conviction.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI stands at 72 as of September 23, 2025, confirming overbought conditions. Historical data shows the RSI frequently exceeded 70 during the August-September 2025 rally, yet the stock continued higher, suggesting strong institutional buying. A close below 50 would typically indicate weakening momentum, but given the recent surge, a pullback to the 60-65 range could present a buying opportunity. Cautious investors may monitor the 70 level as a potential trigger for profit-taking.

Fibonacci Retracement

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 2025-01-15 low of $32.41 and the 2025-05-22 high of $48.92, key retracement levels include 61.8% at $37.65 and 50% at $40.66. The stock’s current price of $75.14 has moved well beyond the 100% extension level ($65.43), indicating a potential for further gains. A retest of the 61.8% retracement level could provide support, but a breakdown below the 50% level would likely trigger a deeper correction.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy of buying IonQ when the RSI is overbought (above 70) and selling when it exceeds 70 has shown a loss of -46.8% from 2022 to 2025. This poor performance aligns with the recent overbought RSI readings, which have not triggered the expected corrections. The strategy’s failure may stem from the stock’s tendency to remain in overbought territory during strong bull trends, as seen in the August-September 2025 rally. Traders should consider modifying the strategy by incorporating additional filters, such as volume divergence or Bollinger Band overextension, to avoid false signals in strong trending markets.