Invivyd Plummets 20%: Capital Raise Sparks Investor Exodus – What’s Next for the Biotech?

Summary
• Invivyd (IVVD) trades at $0.5068, down 20.04% intraday amid a $50M public offering.
• The stock opens at $0.50, with a day range of $0.4851–$0.5175, signaling sharp selling pressure.
• Technicals show a bearish RSI (43.77) and MACD (-0.029) below the signal line.

Invivyd’s stock has collapsed in early afternoon trading following the announcement of a $50M capital raise. The offering, priced at $0.52 per share, has triggered immediate investor skepticism, with the stock trading near its intraday low. Technical indicators reinforce a deteriorating trend, while options data highlights aggressive bearish positioning. This move underscores the market’s wariness of dilution and the company’s reliance on fundraising to advance its pipeline.

Capital Raise Triggers Shareholder Panic
The 20% intraday plunge in IVVD is directly tied to the company’s $50M public offering, announced just one day prior. The offering includes 74.8 million shares at $0.52 and pre-funded warrants for 21.3 million shares at $0.5199, effectively diluting existing shareholders. The stock’s opening at $0.50—below the offering price—immediately signaled investor resistance. The move reflects concerns over valuation, with the offering price representing a 19% discount to the previous close of $0.6338. Additionally, the 30-day over-allotment option for 14.4 million shares amplifies dilution risks, further pressuring the stock.

Bearish Setup: Leverage Put Options and ETFs
• RSI: 43.77 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.029 (bearish), Signal Line: -0.011
• Bollinger Bands: 0.5917 (lower) vs. current price 0.5068 (below band)
• 200D MA: 0.7644 (price far below)

The technicals confirm a deep bearish trend, with IVVD trading near its 52-week low of $0.3546. Key support levels at $0.4851 (intraday low) and $0.45 (next target) are critical to watch. The stock’s negative momentum suggests further downside, making put options the primary play. Two contracts stand out:

• IVVD20250919P0.5
- Type: Put
- Strike: $0.5
- Expiry: 2025-09-19
- IV: 182.67% (high volatility)
- Delta: -0.3858 (moderate sensitivity)
- Gamma: 1.4443 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Theta: -0.0013 (slow time decay)
- Turnover: 100 (liquid)
- Leverage: 5.06%
- Why it works: High gamma and IV make this put ideal for a sharp decline. A 5% drop to $0.48 would yield a 25% payoff (max(0, 0.48–0.5) = $0.02).

• IVVD20251219P0.5
- Type: Put
- Strike: $0.5
- Expiry: 2025-12-19
- IV: 139.98% (moderate)
- Delta: -0.3319 (moderate)
- Gamma: 0.8906 (high)
- Theta: -0.0005 (low decay)
- Turnover: 135 (liquid)
- Leverage: 3.37%
- Why it works: Longer-dated put with high gamma for sustained bearish moves. A 10% drop to $0.45 would yield a 50% payoff (max(0, 0.45–0.5) = $0.05).

Action: Aggressive bears should prioritize IVVD20250919P0.5 for short-term volatility. If the stock breaks below $0.4851, consider adding the December put for extended exposure.

Backtest Invivyd Stock Performance
The IVVD ETF has demonstrated a relatively strong performance following a -20% intraday plunge. The 3-day win rate is 48.04%, the 10-day win rate is 43.53%, and the 30-day win rate is 45.49%, indicating that the ETF tends to rebound over short to medium-term horizons. The maximum return during the backtest period was 1.11%, which occurred on day 4, suggesting that there is potential for positive gains in the immediate aftermath of a significant downturn.

IVVD’s Freefall: Time to Exit or Ride the Bear?
The 20% intraday collapse in IVVD reflects a perfect storm of dilution fears and weak technicals. With the stock trading near its 52-week low and RSI in oversold territory, the bearish trend appears entrenched. Investors should monitor the $0.4851 support level and the $0.45 psychological floor. Meanwhile, the sector leader Regeneron (REGN) is down 0.36%, signaling broader biotech caution. For IVVD, the key question is whether the capital raise will stabilize operations or deepen investor skepticism. Takeaway: Short-term bears should target IVVD20250919P0.5 for a 25%+ return if the stock drops 5% below $0.50.