Investors Gamble on Trump's Absence, Betting on the Unseen

The probability of U.S. President Donald Trump resigning before the end of 2025 currently stands at 6% on Polymarket, according to the latest data from the cryptocurrency-based prediction market [1]. The market tracks the likelihood that Trump will either resign or otherwise cease to serve as president before September 2, 2025. If Trump were to announce a resignation but remain in office beyond the specified timeframe, the market would still resolve as “Yes” [1].

Recent fluctuations in the odds have been influenced by speculation about Trump’s health and public appearances. The probability of his resignation increased from around 3.5% in early August to over 4.5% in the first week of September amid rumors and unsubstantiated claims about his well-being. The odds further rose to 10.4% on the night of August 31, 2025, following speculation that the White House would make a significant announcement from the Oval Office [2]. However, the White House later clarified that the announcement would be related to the Department of Defense [2].

The heightened attention has led to increased trading activity on the market, with over $9.7 million in total volume [1]. Many participants view the market as a barometer of public sentiment, though some users caution that the market could be overreacting to routine or non-substantive announcements. One user noted on the platform that the odds of a “nothing burger”—a routine or non-event—were “quite high” [2]. Others, however, took advantage of the volatility, with several reporting quick profits by trading on small price movements [2].

The speculation has been amplified by Trump’s recent absence from public events. Since his last public appearance on August 26, 2025—a cabinet meeting—Trump has not been seen in public, fueling concerns about his health. While some have claimed he has died, these claims have been refuted by Trump through posts on his social media platform, Truth Social [2]. The White House has not provided a detailed schedule for the president, which may be attributed to the Labor Day weekend. It is worth noting that during his first term, Trump regularly took extended summer breaks, including multiple stays at his Bedminster golf club [2].

Polymarket, a New York-based prediction platform, allows users to trade on a range of political and economic events. During the U.S. election, the platform saw over $1 billion in betting activity on the outcome of the presidential race [2]. The current Trump resignation market reflects a broader trend of using prediction markets to gauge public sentiment and political risk. While the market is not a forecast, it offers insight into how investors and the public perceive the likelihood of an extraordinary event.

Source:

[1] Will Trump resign today? (https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-resign-today)

[2] Trump Resignation Chances Surge Before White House ... (https://www.newsweek.com/trump-resignation-chances-polymarket-2123043)