Investors Bet on Gemini’s Speed, Not Just AI’s Future

The prediction market platform Kalshi has recorded a significant bet—57% of traders are wagering that Gemini will emerge as the top AI model by 2025, underscoring growing investor and market confidence in Google’s Gemini series [1]. This position contrasts with current evaluations of competing models, including ChatGPT 5, which continues to maintain a strong presence in the AI landscape due to its conversational depth and creative capabilities [1].

Gemini 2.5 Pro is currently outperforming ChatGPT 5 in several key technical benchmarks, particularly in speed and real-time reasoning. Independent performance assessments show Gemini processes information at an average of 148 tokens per second, compared to ChatGPT 5’s 102.2 tokens per second [1]. Additionally, Gemini 2.5 Pro excels in multimodal reasoning tasks, where it integrates text, image, and video inputs for enhanced problem-solving. It also benefits from live Google Search integration, enabling access to up-to-the-minute data and news, which is particularly valuable in time-sensitive applications [1].

Despite Gemini’s advantages in speed and factual accuracy, ChatGPT 5 holds its own in areas such as personalization and creative writing. The model retains memory of user interactions, offering a more human-like experience by recalling user preferences and past conversations. It also excels in expressive and descriptive writing, making it a preferred tool for content creation and storytelling [1]. However, these strengths have not diminished the market's bullish outlook on Gemini, as reflected in the Kalshi betting odds.

The performance gap between the two models is further highlighted in coding and technical applications. Gemini 2.5 Pro integrates seamlessly with Google Cloud and developer tools, offering robust support for data analysis, API integration, and multi-language debugging [1]. While ChatGPT 5 provides clear and comprehensive code explanations, Gemini’s broader technical ecosystem gives it an edge for developers working within Google’s platform.

Accessibility and pricing also play a role in the ongoing competition. ChatGPT 5 is available to all tiers, including free users with limited access, while Gemini’s most advanced capabilities are reserved for the premium Google One AI plan at $19.99/month [1]. This pricing structure gives ChatGPT 5 an advantage in affordability, but Gemini’s real-time performance and integration with enterprise tools continue to attract users seeking speed and accuracy.

The Kalshi bet reflects not just current technical performance but also forward-looking expectations about AI development trajectories. While ChatGPT 5 maintains strong user engagement and creative flexibility, the market is favoring Gemini’s technical precision and real-time capabilities as critical factors for long-term leadership in the AI space [1].

Source: [1] ChatGPT 5 vs Gemini 2.5 Pro (https://www.techloy.com/chatgpt-5-vs-gemini-2-5-pro/)