Investor Bets Hinge on Fed's Next Move as Altcoins Await Green Light

The Federal Reserve's recent policy stance has triggered a renewed wave of optimism in the cryptocurrency market, with several key altcoins positioned for potential surges as investors anticipate a 25-basis-point rate cut. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the probability of the central bank reducing interest rates at its upcoming meeting is at 96%, a development that is expected to benefit riskier assets like cryptocurrencies .

Dogecoin (DOGE), one of the most closely watched cryptocurrencies, is currently trading near key technical levels as it awaits the outcome of the Fed's decision. The coin has tested the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.2621, which has acted as a critical support level on the 4-hour chart. Despite a recent pullback that saw the price retrace more than 13% from its previous week’s high, the asset remains above $0.2650 . If the price holds above this level, it could signal a bullish reversal, potentially pushing DOGE back above $0.3000, a level that was previously tested on Saturday .

Futures Open Interest (OI) data further suggests a nuanced market sentiment. OI, which represents the notional value of outstanding futures contracts, has averaged $5.4 billion on Wednesday, down from $6 billion at the beginning of the week. A continued decline in OI could indicate a shift to bearish sentiment, while a rebound would suggest a resurgence in risk-on trading and renewed bullish momentum . Analysts note that OI is a crucial metric for gauging market liquidity and investor participation, with a shrinking OI often signaling waning interest or capital outflows .

Technical indicators also present a mixed outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently at 47 on the 4-hour chart, is in the bearish territory, suggesting fading bullish momentum. However, lower readings moving closer to oversold levels could indicate a potential reversal. Meanwhile, the SuperTrend indicator has maintained a sell signal since Monday, reinforcing the bearish bias. Investors are advised to monitor the 50-period EMA support at $0.2621, with the 100-period and 200-period EMAs at $0.2500 and $0.2382, respectively, serving as additional levels to watch .

Looking further ahead, price predictions for DOGE are largely bullish. According to technical analysis models, DOGE is expected to reach $0.310601 by October 17, 2025, representing a potential 15.83% increase from current levels . Long-term forecasts suggest a more dramatic move, with some analysts predicting a price of $0.60 within a multi-year timeframe . These optimistic projections are based on factors such as increased retail interest, whale accumulation, and the potential for a broader market rally following the Fed’s rate cut .

The broader altcoin market is also showing signs of strength, with Ripple’s XRP surging by 12.94% in the last 24 hours, trading at $2.928 . Analysts point to strong whale accumulation, with wallets holding 1–10 million XRP valued at $3.8 billion, as a key driver of the rally. Similarly, Cardano (ADA) has gained 8.87% to $0.88, with whale activity suggesting further upside potential . The market's overall resurgence has been supported by a growing volume of capital inflows into the crypto sector and heightened expectations for favorable regulatory developments in the U.S. .

The market dynamics are further influenced by the interplay of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. For example, the recent surge in Bitcoin and altcoins following weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data has reinforced expectations of a rate cut, with Bitcoin briefly surpassing $114,000 . If the Fed follows through, the resulting boost in liquidity could benefit the entire crypto market, including altcoins like DOGE, ADA, and XRP .

In summary, the cryptocurrency market is poised for a potential upswing as the Fed’s monetary policy shifts create a more favorable environment for risk assets. While Dogecoin and other altcoins face near-term technical challenges, the broader outlook remains bullish, supported by rising investor sentiment and key technical levels that could catalyze further gains.