The Investment Case for Critical Mineral Security in a Geopolitically Uncertain Era

In an era defined by geopolitical volatility and supply chain fragility, the strategic value of critical minerals has never been more pronounced. Antimony, a mineral essential to advanced defense systems and industrial applications, has emerged as a linchpin of national security. Perpetua Resources' Stibnite Gold Project in Idaho is not merely a mining venture-it is a cornerstone of U.S. efforts to insulate its critical mineral supply chain from foreign manipulation. As China's export restrictions on antimony have driven prices to record highs and exposed systemic vulnerabilities, the project's potential to supply 35% of U.S. demand within six years positions it as a rare asset with both economic and geopolitical significance.

Strategic Imperative: Antimony and National Defense

Antimony's role in military-grade materials, such as antimony trisulfide used in munitions, underscores its strategic importance. China's abrupt ban on antimony exports to the U.S. in December 2024-a move framed as a response to "national security concerns"-has created a crisis. Prices surged to $51,500 per ton in 2025, a tenfold increase from the five-year average, exposing the U.S.'s overreliance on foreign sources. Perpetua's Stibnite Gold Project, the only identified antimony reserve in America, is now a critical lifeline.

The project's collaboration with the Idaho National Laboratory to establish a pilot processing plant is a pivotal step toward creating a fully domestic "ground-to-round" supply chain. This initiative, supported by a $22.4 million grant from the U.S. Army's Defense Ordnance Technology Consortium, aims to produce military-grade antimony trisulfide without relying on Chinese inputs. Such efforts align with broader U.S. policies, including the Critical Minerals Forum and the Defense Production Act, which prioritize domestic production.

Geopolitical Realities and U.S. Countermeasures

China's actions reflect a deliberate strategy to weaponize mineral insecurity. By tightening export controls in August 2024 and later imposing a complete ban, Beijing has forced the U.S. to accelerate its pivot toward self-sufficiency. This shift is evident in the government's support for companies like Perpetua, United States Antimony Corporation (UAMY), and Locksley Resources, all of which are advancing antimony projects with public funding.

However, challenges persist. Environmental regulations and the time required to bring new operations online create bottlenecks. Meanwhile, competition for antimony resources in countries like Australia and Bolivia demands robust diplomatic and economic partnerships. Despite these hurdles, the U.S. has made progress: the Stibnite Gold Project's groundbreaking in October 2025 and the $255 million equity investment from Agnico Eagle and JPMorgan signal confidence in its long-term viability.

Financial Resilience and Investment Potential

Perpetua Resources' financial trajectory reflects its strategic importance. The company raised $255 million in October 2025 through a strategic equity investment and an additional $78 million via a registered offering, funding critical engineering and construction activities. While the company is forecast to remain unprofitable for three years, its projected revenue growth of 63% annually and EPS growth of 58.3% highlight its potential to scale rapidly.

Analyst sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish. As of Q4 2025, the average 12-month price target for Perpetua's stock (PPTA) is $28.88, representing a 13.89% upside from its closing price of $25.36. With 10 analysts covering the stock and a "Buy" consensus, the investment case is further strengthened by the company's alignment with national security priorities.

The Dual-Edged Investment Case

Investing in Perpetua Resources transcends traditional financial metrics. The Stibnite Gold Project is a geopolitical insurance policy, ensuring the U.S. can meet its antimony needs without ceding leverage to adversarial nations. For investors, this dual role-economic asset and national security enabler-creates a unique value proposition. While the company's path to profitability is not without risks, its strategic alignment with U.S. policy, robust funding, and favorable analyst outlook make it a compelling play in a world where mineral security is synonymous with geopolitical stability.