Intuitive Machines Outlook: Technicals Signal Caution Amid Mixed Fundamentals

1. Market Snapshot
   Headline Takeaway: Intuitive Machines (LUNR.O) faces strong bearish technical signals, despite positive money flows and mixed fundamental indicators. Investors are advised to approach with caution due to the weak technical outlook.

2. News Highlights
   Recent news affecting Intuitive Machines includes:

Restore Robotics achieved a milestone with the first in-human use of a remanufactured da Vinci Xi® robotic instrument. This could indirectly boost demand for Intuitive Machines’ products in robotic surgical systems. Texas Instruments (TXN) spoke at a Bernstein conference about growth in the industrial and automotive sectors. While not directly related to Intuitive Machines, it highlights positive momentum in the broader technology and industrial space. Vodafone Idea announced a significant capital raise of up to Rs 20,000 crore. While not directly relevant to Intuitive Machines, it reflects a general trend of companies raising capital to support long-term operations and expansion.

1. Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analyst sentiment is mixed, with one analyst from Keybanc recently issuing a “Buy” rating. However, this contrasts with the historical win rate of 0.0% for this analyst, suggesting caution. The simple average rating is 4.00, while the performance-weighted rating is 0.00, indicating a sharp divergence in expectations.

Analyst ratings do not align with the recent 28.46% price increase, suggesting a possible disconnect between market action and expectations.

Key fundamental values and their model scores (internal diagnostic scores 0-10) are as follows:

Net Profit Margin: -28.55% (Score: 3.00)
ROE (Diluted): -38.72% (Score: 3.00)
ROE: -31.72% (Score: 3.00)
PB-ROE: 1.44 (Score: 9.00)
Net Profit / Total Operating Revenue: -28.55% (Score: 3.00)

While ROE and net profit margins are weak, the PB-ROE ratio appears to be a positive contributor to the overall fundamental score of 8.61.

1. Money-Flow Trends

Money is currently flowing into LUNR.O, with positive inflow ratios across all categories: small (51.25%), medium (50.45%), large (50.04%), and extra-large (50.10%). The overall inflow ratio is 50.14%, and the fund-flow score is 7.93, labeled as “good.”

This suggests strong institutional and retail buying interest, which contrasts with the bearish technical signals. Big-money and retail flows are aligned in favor of the stock, though they may not be enough to overcome the technical headwinds.

1. Key Technical Signals

Technically, LUNR.O is in a weak state, with an internal diagnostic score of 2.38 and 6 bearish indicators versus 0 bullish ones. Key bearish signals include:

RSI Overbought (Score: 2.37)
Long Upper Shadow (Score: 1.17)
Three Black Crows (Score: 1.00)

Recent chart patterns include multiple appearances of RSI Overbought and Long Upper Shadow from December 10–19, 2025, suggesting ongoing selling pressure and a lack of follow-through buying. The Three Black Crows pattern on December 16 added to the bearish sentiment.

Overall, the technical trend is weak, and investors are advised to avoid the stock at this time.

1. Conclusion

Intuitive Machines is caught in a crossfire between strong inflows and weak technical indicators. While the fundamentals suggest some areas of strength (notably PB-ROE), the technical score of 2.38 and 6 bearish signals make for a challenging outlook.

Actionable takeaway: Investors should consider waiting for a pull-back or clearer signs of technical improvement before entering this trade. For now, the combination of weak technicals and inconsistent analyst sentiment suggests a cautious approach.