Why Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR) Is Poised to Dominate Lunar Infrastructure

The global space economy is projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035, and one company stands at the epicenter of this boom: Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR). With a $4.8 billion NASA contract pipeline, a growing portfolio of lunar missions, and a valuation that lags far behind industry peers, LUNR represents a rare opportunity to invest in the next phase of space exploration. Here’s why this is a moonshot worth taking.

The $4.8B Contract Machine: Revenue Growth on Autopilot

LUNR’s Near Space Network Services (NSNS) contracts with NASA are the backbone of its valuation thesis. These firm-fixed-price, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity (IDIQ) agreements have a maximum potential value of $4.82 billion, with $27 million already executed in Q1/Q2 2025. The contracts span five years (2025–2029), with options to extend through 2034, creating predictable revenue streams for years to come.

• Q1 2025 Highlights:
• $9 million in milestone payments delivered.
• $18 million secured for Q2 milestones.
• Revenue rose 14% Q/Q to $62.5 million, with $13.3 million in free cash flow.
• Key Missions:
• IM-3/4 Lunar Landers: Set to deliver NASA’s VIPER water-hunting rover and commercial payloads to the Moon by late 2025.
• Lunar Relay Satellites: Enabling real-time communication for Artemis crewed missions and $1.2 billion in annual data services revenue by 2030.

This is not just about government contracts—it’s about owning the lunar infrastructure stack. LUNR’s Direct-to-Earth (DTE) communication systems and data relay capabilities are irreplaceable for NASA’s Artemis program and private lunar miners alike.

Why 2.5x Sales Multiple? LUNR Is Grossly Undervalued

While peers like SpaceX and Blue Origin trade at 12x–20x sales multiples, LUNR’s valuation is stuck at 2.5x 2025 revenue guidance ($250–$300 million). This creates a huge asymmetry of risk/reward.

• SpaceX’s Valuation Context:
• Sacra estimates SpaceX’s 2025 revenue at $26 billion, with a 15x multiple implying a $390 billion valuation.

• LUNR’s $300 million revenue ceiling at 15x would value it at $4.5 billion—a 14x upside from current levels.

• Blue Origin’s Backlog:

• Blue Origin holds a $10 billion launch backlog, yet LUNR’s lunar infrastructure role—critical for sustaining human presence on the Moon—is more defensible.

The disconnect? LUNR is still a small-cap story, while investors overvalue SpaceX’s near-term Starlink dominance. But as lunar logistics and data services scale exponentially, LUNR’s margins will expand, and its valuation multiple will rise to reflect its strategic necessity.

Diversification into High-Margin Data Services

LUNR isn’t just a rocket company—it’s becoming a lunar telecom giant. Its DTE services and geostationary relay networks are 70% gross margin businesses, untethered from launch costs. By 2030, NASA’s lunar data needs could hit 10 terabytes/day, creating a recurring revenue stream LUNR can monetize through:
- Payload delivery fees for private companies.
- Data transmission subscriptions for scientists and miners.

This diversification reduces reliance on government contracts and positions LUNR as a profit machine in a $1.8T economy.

Risks? Yes. But They’re Overblown

Critics cite execution risks (e.g., IM-3 delays) and potential dilution from fundraising. Fair points—but context matters:

• Execution Track Record: LUNR’s 2024 Nova-C lander was a 100% success, proving its technical chops. NASA’s reliance on its lunar relay satellites for Artemis means failure is not an option—funding and support will follow.
• Dilution Concerns: At $300 million in revenue and $13 million in Q1 free cash flow, LUNR’s balance sheet is healthier than peers at this stage.

The bigger risk? Missing the moonshot. Lunar infrastructure is a winner-takes-most market, and LUNR’s early dominance is unmatched.

Conclusion: Buy LUNR for the Lunar Economy

LUNR’s $4.8 billion contract pipeline, high-margin data services, and NASA’s dependency make it a critical player in the next space revolution. At 2.5x sales, it’s priced for stagnation—but the lunar economy is just taking off.

Action Item:
- Buy LUNR if you believe in the $1.8 trillion space economy and want exposure to its most undervalued infrastructure play.
- Watch for: Q3 2025 updates on IM-3/4 launches and NSNS milestone payments.

The Moon isn’t just a destination—it’s a $1.8T investment thesis. LUNR is your ticket to stake a claim.