Intuitive Machines: CEO's $31.5M Sale vs. Smart Money's Silence

The headline says "execution and growth," but the filings tell a different story. For the smart money, the only true signal is what insiders do with their own cash. And here, the CEO's actions are a major red flag.

Stephen Altemus, the man leading the charge, just sold 12,669 shares at an average price of $20.00 on January 8th. That's a tidy $253,000 in his pocket. More telling is the context: this sale was executed under the same Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted in December 2024. The plan was set up months ago, but the timing is suspicious. He sold at a premium price-well above the stock's recent trading range-right as the company's acquisition news was fresh and analyst ratings were bullish.

Zoom out, and the picture gets starker. In late December, he unloaded a massive $31.5 million in stock, with prices ranging from $15.01 to $16.71. That's a significant exit of skin in the game. The fact that he sold at a higher price in January, after the stock had rallied, suggests he was waiting for a better deal. It's classic insider behavior: take money off the table when the story is hot and the price is right.

The bottom line is a clear misalignment of interest. While the CEO is publicly touting the company's strategic positioning and lunar ambitions, his wallet is sending a different message. He's been selling, and not just a little. The $31.5 million chunk in December, followed by a smaller but higher-priced sale in January, paints a picture of an executive cashing out rather than doubling down. In a company with a net loss of $10 million last quarter, that kind of selling is hard to reconcile with genuine confidence in the near-term path. For now, the smart money is watching the filings, not the hype.

Smart Money vs. CEO: The Institutional Silence

The CEO is selling. The smart money? It's mostly silent. That contrast is the real story here.

The stock's valuation tells you why insiders might be cautious. With a market capitalization of $3.46 billion and a negative P/E ratio of -7.77, the market is pricing in massive future growth. This isn't a value stock; it's a pure growth bet where every dollar of loss today is supposed to buy a moon landing tomorrow. That kind of expectation leaves little room for error.

Now look at the technicals. The stock trades around its 50-day moving average of $12.44, a level that often signals institutional interest. Yet the recent price action is volatile, swinging wildly within a 52-week range of $6.14 to $24.95. This isn't the steady climb of a company with a clear path. It's the choppiness of a story still being written, where sentiment can drive sharp moves in either direction.

So, where are the big players? The evidence shows a pattern of accumulation, but it's not recent. In the third quarter, major institutions like Vanguard Group Inc., Bank of America Corp DE, and Voya Investment Management LLC all increased their stakes. Geode Capital and UBS also boosted holdings. That's a clear vote of confidence from the smart money, with 72.21% of the stock now owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

The silence is in the timing. These were Q3 purchases, made months ago. Since then, the stock has seen a major rally, with the CEO selling into it. The institutional buyers from last quarter haven't been seen buying more recently. They've taken their position and are sitting tight. In a market this volatile, that kind of patience can be a signal in itself. It suggests the big players aren't seeing a new, compelling entry point right now, even as the price moves.

Backtest-component code="LUNR" id="strategy_001" range="3">

The bottom line is a divergence. The CEO is taking money off the table at elevated levels. The institutional whales, who have skin in the game, are holding their ground. For the smart money, the setup is one of high expectations and high uncertainty. They've already bought in, but they're not adding more fuel to a rally that may already be priced for perfection. In this game, waiting for a better deal is often the smartest move.

The Business Pivot: A Catalyst or a Distraction?

The company's strategic shift is a major catalyst on paper. The planned $800 million acquisition of Lantera is a clear pivot to become a vertically integrated space prime. The math looks good: the combined entity is expected to exceed $850 million in revenue and $920 million in backlog. That's a powerful growth story on a balance sheet that already shows promise.

Yet the current financials tell a more cautious tale. In the third quarter, revenue was $52.4 million, flat sequentially. The company posted a net loss of $10 million, even as adjusted EBITDA improved. This is the reality beneath the strategic hype. The business is scaling, but it's not yet profitable. The CEO's commentary from May 2025, highlighting government contract wins and a focus on execution, rings true. The company is delivering on its core lunar missions and securing new contracts.

So, does this justify the CEO's exit? The pivot is a long-term play, but the timing of the sales is the disconnect. The $31.5 million sale in December happened before the Lantera deal was announced. The January sale came after the stock had rallied on the acquisition news. For a CEO who publicly emphasized execution and government wins, selling into a rally on a major strategic deal is a hard message to square with skin in the game.

The bottom line is that the business pivot is a catalyst for the future, but it doesn't erase the present. The company is still burning cash while it builds. The institutional whales bought in Q3, likely betting on the long-term integration. The CEO, however, is taking money off the table now. In a volatile, high-expectation stock, that kind of selling can look less like a vote of confidence and more like a personal exit strategy. The smart money is watching the filings, not the future revenue projections.

Catalysts, Risks, and What to Watch

The setup is clear. The company is pivoting, the stock is volatile, and the CEO is selling. For the smart money, the next few months will test whether the growth narrative holds or if the insider exits are a premature warning.

The primary catalyst is the integration of the Lantera acquisition and the execution of new government contracts. The deal is expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, and the combined entity's projected revenue and backlog are the new benchmarks. The company has already seen success with government wins, but the real test is turning those contracts into consistent, scalable revenue. Any stumble in the integration or a delay in contract fulfillment would directly challenge the growth thesis that justifies the current valuation.

A key risk is continued insider selling pressure. The CEO's Rule 10b5-1 trading plan is set to run through the end of the year. With the stock trading near his recent sale prices, there's a risk of more sales if the plan triggers. The smart money will be watching for any filings beyond the pre-arranged plan that show additional sales by insiders. The pattern of accumulation by major institutions in Q3 is a positive sign, but if insiders start selling into a rally, it would signal a loss of alignment.

What to watch next is straightforward. First, the Q4 earnings report, expected to show revenue in line with the flat Q3 level of $52.4 million. The focus will be on the impact of the government shutdown and any updates on backlog conversion. Second, monitor the Lantera deal's progress toward closing. Third, and most importantly, watch the SEC filings. Any change in the CEO's 10b5-1 plan or new sales by other insiders will be a direct signal from the smart money. The institutional whales have already bought in; their next move will tell you if they see a new opportunity or are content to hold.