Intuit's Sustained Earnings Momentum and AI-Driven Growth Potential: A Case for Long-Term Value and Near-Term Outperformance

In the ever-evolving fintech landscape, Intuit (INTU) has emerged as a standout performer, blending robust financial results with a visionary AI strategy. With fiscal 2025 earnings underscoring 16% year-over-year revenue growth to $18.8 billion and non-GAAP EPS rising 19% to $20.15, the company is not just meeting expectations—it's redefining them. But what truly sets Intuit apart is its strategic integration of artificial intelligence, which is transforming both its business and consumer platforms into engines of efficiency, scalability, and customer-centric innovation.

Earnings Momentum: A Foundation for Growth

Intuit's fiscal 2025 results were nothing short of impressive. Total revenue hit $18.8 billion, driven by a 20% Q4 surge to $3.8 billion. The Global Business Solutions Group (GBS) and Online Ecosystem segment were standout performers, with the latter growing 21% to $2.2 billion. Excluding Mailchimp, growth accelerated further, with the Online Ecosystem surging 26%. TurboTax Live, a cornerstone of the Consumer Group, saw 47% annual revenue growth to $2.0 billion, while Credit Karma's 34% Q4 revenue jump to $649 million highlighted its expanding role in financial empowerment.

Earnings per share (EPS) growth was equally compelling. GAAP EPS rose 31% to $13.67 for the full year, with non-GAAP EPS up 19% to $20.15. The fourth quarter delivered a 38% year-over-year increase in non-GAAP EPS to $2.75, reflecting disciplined cost management and pricing power. Looking ahead, Intuit's 2026 guidance—$20.997 billion to $21.186 billion in revenue (12–13% growth) and $22.98–$23.18 in non-GAAP EPS (14–15% growth)—suggests the company is poised to maintain its trajectory.

AI as a Strategic Catalyst

Intuit's AI investments are no longer speculative—they're operational bedrock. In 2024, the company allocated $2.75 billion (15.68% of total revenue) to AI R&D, a commitment that's paying dividends. Agentic AI agents like the Finance Agent, Accounting Agent, and Payments Agent are automating complex tasks for small and mid-sized businesses (SMBs). For example, AI-generated invoice reminders have boosted payment conversion rates by 45%, while the Accounting Agent saves SMBs 12 hours monthly by streamlining bookkeeping.

The impact extends beyond efficiency. QuickBooks Online's 22% revenue growth in 2025 was fueled by AI-powered tools, and the newly launched Intuit Enterprise Suite—offering scenario planning and peer benchmarking—has achieved 68% customer satisfaction. Meanwhile, the Sovos partnership is embedding compliance infrastructure into QuickBooks, simplifying regulatory processes in key markets like the EU and Brazil.

On the consumer side, Credit Karma's AI-driven personal loan and insurance recommendations have increased conversion rates by 10%, while TurboTax Live's 47% revenue share in the Consumer Group underscores the value of blending human expertise with AI. By unifying its Consumer, Credit Karma, and ProTax businesses into a single group, Intuit is leveraging data synergies to enhance user experiences and drive cross-selling.

Long-Term Value Creation and Near-Term Outperformance

Intuit's AI strategy is a masterclass in long-term value creation. By automating repetitive tasks, reducing compliance friction, and democratizing access to advanced financial tools, the company is building a durable competitive moat. The focus on agentic AI—systems that autonomously optimize workflows—positions Intuit to capture market share in the $1.5 trillion SMB services sector, where efficiency gains are a top priority.

Near-term outperformance is also within reach. The 2026 guidance implies continued revenue and EPS growth, supported by high-margin AI-driven products. For instance, the Enterprise Suite's success in the mid-market and the Sovos partnership's compliance benefits could unlock new revenue streams. Meanwhile, Credit Karma's 10–13% growth forecast for 2026 suggests the company is capitalizing on the rising demand for financial literacy and credit management tools.

Risks and Considerations

No investment is without risk. Intuit's aggressive AI bets require sustained R&D spending, which could pressure margins if ROI lags. Additionally, regulatory scrutiny of AI in financial services—particularly around data privacy and algorithmic bias—could slow adoption. However, Intuit's proactive approach to AI governance, including collaboration with ethicists and policymakers, mitigates these risks. The company's focus on code-free solutions also ensures that even non-technical users can benefit, broadening its appeal.

Investment Thesis

For investors seeking a blend of near-term momentum and long-term innovation, Intuit offers a compelling case. The company's earnings growth, coupled with its AI-driven product roadmap, creates a flywheel effect: stronger financials fund more AI R&D, which in turn drives higher customer retention and market share. With a P/E ratio of ~35 (as of August 2025) and a forward P/E of ~28, Intuit trades at a premium but is justified by its growth trajectory and strategic differentiation.

Actionable Advice:
- Buy for growth: Intuit's AI initiatives and strong guidance make it a top pick for investors with a 3–5 year horizon.
- Monitor AI adoption metrics: Track user engagement with agentic AI agents and the Enterprise Suite's customer acquisition costs.
- Diversify exposure: Pair Intuit with more conservative fintech plays to balance risk.

In a world where AI is reshaping industries, Intuit isn't just keeping up—it's leading the charge. For those willing to bet on innovation, the numbers speak for themselves.