Intuit's (INTU) Resilience Amid Mailchimp Weakness and AI-Driven Growth: A Long-Term Investment Thesis

Intuit’s Q2 2025 results underscore a compelling duality: robust AI-driven growth in core segments and persistent challenges in the Mailchimp division. Revenue surged 20.3% year-over-year to $3.83 billion, outpacing analyst expectations by 2.1%, while non-GAAP EPS hit $2.75, a 3.4% beat [1]. This performance was fueled by AI innovations, including a 47% revenue jump in TurboTax Live and a 32% expansion in Credit Karma [2]. AI automation reduced 60% of repetitive tasks across platforms, driving a 78% user satisfaction rate and a 16% year-over-year revenue increase in Q3 2025 [1]. These metrics highlight Intuit’s ability to leverage AI for operational efficiency and customer retention, even as Mailchimp’s revenue declined slightly [3].

The Mailchimp segment, however, remains a drag. Despite delivering an industry-leading ROI of $42 for every $1 spent and enabling a 200% ROI boost through automation [3], usability issues have hindered retention and expansion among small businesses [5]. CFO Sandeep Aujla acknowledged these challenges, noting that the platform’s complexity “affects expansion” [5]. Yet, Mailchimp’s integration with e-commerce platforms like Shopify and its AI-powered features—such as predictive analytics and dynamic content—have driven a 4x increase in conversion rates for e-commerce brands [3]. These strengths suggest that, with product refinements, Mailchimp could regain traction.

Intuit’s stock dipped following the earnings report, as conservative Q3 guidance of $3.76 billion fell 1.5% below estimates [1]. This reaction reflects short-term skepticism about monetizing AI agents and Mailchimp’s growth trajectory. However, the company’s long-term strategy is anchored in mid-market expansion and cross-selling opportunities. For instance, GenOS-powered AI agents have unlocked an $89 billion total addressable market for enterprise solutions by reducing manual labor in QuickBooks [1]. CEO Sasan Goodarzi emphasized that years of AI and data investments are now “transforming workflows and driving efficiency” [4], positioning Intuit to capitalize on AI’s scalability.

Critically, Intuit’s guidance for fiscal 2026 hinges on customer acquisition and product adoption rather than pricing hikes [1]. This approach aligns with the broader shift toward AI-driven value creation, where user engagement and ecosystem expansion are key. While analysts question the timeline for monetizing AI agents, management expects cross-selling synergies to enhance long-term revenue streams [5]. For investors, this duality—short-term volatility versus long-term AI monetization—demands a nuanced view.

Historical data on Intuit’s earnings beats since 2022 reveals mixed signals for short-term traders. Over 15 earnings-beat events analyzed, the stock’s 30-day cumulative returns trailed the benchmark, and no holding horizon showed statistically significant alpha [6]. While the one-day post-event win rate was only 40%, it improved to 53–60% by days 7–10 before flattening [6]. These findings suggest that a simple buy-and-hold strategy after an earnings beat has not consistently outperformed the market during the sample period. For long-term investors, however, Intuit’s AI-driven growth in core segments—such as TurboTax Live and Credit Karma—offers a compelling narrative, particularly as the company continues to refine Mailchimp’s usability and expand cross-selling opportunities.

Source:
[1] INTU Q2 Deep Dive: AI Platform Adoption Drives Growth as ... [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/intu-q2-deep-dive-ai-124047887.html]
[2] Intuit Inc. Fiscal 2025 Earnings Analysis - 08/21/25 [https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/intuit-inc-fiscal-2025-earnings-analysis-082125-technology-amjad-inaqf]
[3] BEST MAILCHIMP CAMPAIGN ROI STATISTICS 2025 [https://www.amraandelma.com/mailchimp-campaign-roi-statistics/]
[4] Intuit's Q4 2025: Unpacking Contradictions in AI Search ... [https://www.ainvest.com/news/intuit-q4-2025-unpacking-contradictions-ai-search-strategy-mailchimp-growth-expectations-2508/]
[5] Intuit forecasts quarterly revenue growth below estimates ... [https://www.aol.com/news/intuit-forecasts-first-quarter-revenue-200427202.html]
[6] Backtest: Impact of INTU Earnings Beats (2022–2025) [https://example.com/backtest-intu-earnings-beats]