Intuit's AI-Driven Surge: A Compelling Case for Long-Term Investors

Intuit (NASDAQ: INTU) is proving that its bet on artificial intelligence (AI) isn't just hype—it's a strategic engine driving record growth. The company's fiscal Q3 2025 results, delivered on May 23, 2025, underscore a transformative shift: AI is no longer just a buzzword but a measurable force propelling revenue, customer satisfaction, and investor confidence. With a 15% revenue growth target now within sight and Wall Street analysts rallying behind the stock, Intuit presents a rare opportunity for investors to capitalize on a tech leader redefining financial software.

The AI Advantage: From Incremental to Exponential
Intuit's AI platform is the unsung hero of its Q3 beat, though the earnings call and press release don't yet break out its direct financial impact. The clues are everywhere. Take TurboTax Live, which saw revenue skyrocket 47% year-over-year, contributing to the Consumer Group's 11% growth. CEO Sasan Goodarzi highlighted how AI agents and “AI-enabled human experts” are slashing tax preparation time by up to 40% for TurboTax users. This efficiency isn't just cost-cutting—it's a customer retention machine. TurboTax Live's 24% year-over-year customer growth signals a product that's not just keeping up with rivals but outpacing them.
Meanwhile, QuickBooks Online Accounting revenue jumped 21%, fueled by AI-driven features like automated expense tracking and predictive cash flow tools. The Global Business Solutions (GBS) segment's 19% revenue surge, including a 20% rise in its Online Ecosystem, reflects how AI is embedding Intuit deeper into SMB workflows. Even Credit Karma, now a $579 million revenue powerhouse, leverages AI to personalize credit card and loan recommendations, driving 31% growth.
Financial Outperformance: A 15% Growth Target Now Feasible
Intuit isn't just meeting targets—it's raising the bar. The company hiked its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to $18.72–$18.76 billion, a 15% increase from 2024, up from a prior 12–13% forecast. This isn't a stretch. The Consumer Group's revised 10% growth target (up from 7–8%) is backed by TurboTax Live's momentum. GBS's 16% growth target, including 20% for its Online Ecosystem, reflects AI's role in retaining mid-market clients. The $89 billion total addressable market (TAM) for mid-sized businesses is a gold mine, exemplified by a multi-entity title company's return to Intuit after a competitor's migration failed—a testament to AI-powered integration in its Intuit Enterprise Suite (IES).
Operating income growth is even more striking. Non-GAAP operating income is now projected to rise 18% year-over-year, a margin expansion fueled by AI's productivity gains. Add a 16% dividend hike to $1.04 per share, and Intuit is proving it can scale profitably while rewarding shareholders.
Analyst Consensus: A "Strong Buy" Rally with 20% Upside Potential
Analysts are rallying behind Intuit like never before. As of May 2025, 22 Wall Street analysts have issued a consensus "Strong Buy" rating, with an average 12-month price target of $795.19—a 19% upside from its current $666.07 price. The highest target, $875 from Stifel's Brad Reback, suggests even more optimism.
- Goldman Sachs upgraded its target to $860, citing AI's role in turbocharging QuickBooks and TurboTax.
- Morgan Stanley sees a $785 price tag, emphasizing Credit Karma's AI-driven credit product growth.
- J.P. Morgan raised its target to $770, highlighting Intuit's “AI-powered flywheel” across all segments.
These targets aren't arbitrary. Analysts point to Intuit's Q3 results—a 15% revenue beat and a $11.65 EPS (vs. $10.91 estimates)—as proof that AI isn't just a future ambition but a present-day profit driver.
Risks? Yes. But the Reward Outweighs Them
No investment is risk-free. Intuit faces headwinds like economic downturns, regulatory scrutiny of credit products, and AI talent competition. The decline in TurboTax's “pay-nothing” customers (to 8 million from 10 million) hints at pricing pressures. Yet these risks are mitigated by Intuit's diversified revenue streams, sticky customer bases (QuickBooks has 6 million subscribers), and a $7 billion revenue run rate that's hard to topple.
The Bottom Line: A Stock Built for the AI Era
Intuit isn't just a tax and accounting software company anymore—it's a financial technology titan harnessing AI to dominate every segment it touches. With analysts pricing in 15% revenue growth and a 19% upside, the stock is primed for long-term gains. For investors seeking a leader in AI-driven software, Intuit offers a rare blend of execution, scalability, and Wall Street validation. This is a buy at $666—and a hold for the next decade.
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