Internet Computer/Tether Market Overview: ICPUSDT Daily Price Action and Technical Signals

Summary
• ICPUSDT opened at $6.823 and closed at $6.338, marking a significant bearish reversal.
• Volume surged to over 675,000 USDT, reflecting heightened trading activity during the pullback.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the high of $7.301, suggesting potential continuation of the downtrend.
• RSI approached overbought levels twice before reversing sharply downward, signaling exhaustion of bullish momentum.
• Volatility expanded during the 24-hour period, with Bollinger Bands widening around the key $6.50–$6.70 range.

Market Summary and Opening Narrative

Internet Computer/Tether (ICPUSDT) opened at $6.823 on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as $7.301 before closing at $6.338 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-11. Total volume for the 24-hour period amounted to approximately 6,737,932 USDT, with a notional turnover of around $44.5 million. The pair has shown increased bearish pressure and potential for further downside in the short term.

Structure & Formations

ICPUSDT formed a key bearish engulfing candle at the top of a 4.5% rally from $6.55 to $7.301. This candle, which opened at $7.158 and closed at $6.86, may signal a breakdown in bullish momentum. A key support level is forming around $6.30–$6.32, coinciding with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent upswing. The 38.2% level at $6.63 has already failed as a magnet for buyers.

Moving Averages and MACD

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (EMA 20) crossed below the 50-period EMA, signaling a bearish crossover. The 50-period EMA is now below the 200-period EMA, suggesting the longer-term trend is down. MACD is negative and in a bearish divergence with price, with the histogram contracting despite a recent bounce. This could point to a lack of conviction in the rally.

RSI and Bollinger Bands

Relative Strength Index (RSI) pushed up to 70 and above during the rally to $7.301, indicating overbought conditions before reversing sharply. RSI is currently at 30, suggesting the pair may have oversold, but without a reversal candle, it could continue down. Bollinger Bands have widened significantly, with the 20-period band sitting at $6.87–$6.93. Price is now trading below the lower band, suggesting continued volatility and bearish pressure.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked during the sell-off from $7.301 to $6.594, with over 675,000 USDT transacted during that leg of the move. However, volume dropped off significantly during the rebound from $6.30 to $6.45, suggesting weak buyer interest. Notional turnover also declined during the rebound, confirming a lack of conviction. A divergence between price and volume during the rally could be a red flag for further bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing from $6.30 to $7.301, the 61.8% level at $6.63 has failed as support. The 50% level at $6.80 may still offer a psychological barrier, but it has already been rejected twice in the past 24 hours. A breakdown below $6.30 would trigger the 38.2% retracement level at $6.44 as resistance for a potential bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

To set up an objective, reproducible back-test for an “RSI-overbought = sell” rule, I’ll need a few extra details:
1. Universe – Do you want to test one specific ticker (e.g., SPY, AAPL, TSLA, etc.), or several?
2. RSI settings – Standard RSI period is 14 days; is that acceptable, or would you like a different length?
3. Exit / cover rule – Do we close the short when RSI falls back below a chosen level (e.g., 50), or after a fixed holding window (e.g., 10 trading days), or when a profit/stop-loss level is hit?
4. Risk controls (optional) – Stop-loss %, take-profit %, or max holding days you’d like to enforce?
5. Price series – Use daily close prices (standard) or open prices?

Once we lock these in, I’ll fetch the RSI data, generate the short-entry/exit signals, and run the back-test from 2022-01-01 to today, returning full performance stats and an interactive chart.

Forward-Looking View and Risk Caveat

In the next 24 hours, ICPUSDT could test the psychological support level of $6.30, with a breakdown likely leading to the next target at $6.16. However, a bounce could retest $6.45–$6.50. Investors should remain cautious as the RSI remains in oversold territory and could trigger a short-term bounce unless bearish momentum persists.