Internet Computer/Tether Market Overview (2025-10-04)

• ICPUSDT traded higher by +3.03% over the last 24 hours, closing at $4.601.
• Key resistance appeared at $4.681, while support was tested at $4.555.
• Volatility increased during the afternoon, with peak volume at $4.681.
• MACD and RSI showed positive momentum, though overbought levels flagged caution.
• Bollinger Bands widened after 20:00 ET, signaling increased market uncertainty.

Internet Computer/Tether (ICPUSDT) opened at $4.577 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at $4.601 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. The pair reached a high of $4.701 and a low of $4.545, with total volume of 1,161,342.64 and notional turnover of $5,421,663.84 over the 24-hour window. The price action reflects a moderate bullish bias amid shifting short-term volatility.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a key bullish pattern during the 18:00–19:00 ET window, including a bullish engulfing pattern at $4.604. The 19:30–20:45 ET range showed consolidation with a rising wedge forming between $4.63 and $4.681. A notable bearish reversal emerged at $4.681, as a doji formed after a strong rally, hinting at potential exhaustion in the bullish momentum. The low of $4.545 acted as a critical support area, where buyers re-entered the market.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs showed a bullish crossover at $4.61–$4.62 around 19:30 ET, aligning with the consolidation phase. On the daily timeframe, the 200-period SMA currently rests at $4.55, indicating that the recent move above this level may be a meaningful breakout for ICPUSDT. The 50-period SMA at $4.58 suggests a moderate bullish bias for the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive at 19:30 ET and remained above the signal line for most of the session, with the histogram showing a bullish divergence from 20:00 to 22:30 ET. RSI peaked at 69 during the 22:45 ET candle and pulled back to neutral levels by 04:00 ET, suggesting overbought conditions were met with profit-taking. RSI currently sits at 56, indicating the market is in balance, but caution is warranted as momentum may reverse.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly between 20:00 and 22:30 ET, with the upper band reaching $4.681 and the lower band dipping to $4.65. The price closed the session near the middle band, suggesting potential for further consolidation or a breakout. A retest of the $4.681 upper band may trigger a new wave of short-term bullish sentiment, while a drop below the $4.62 level may see a retracement to the $4.58–$4.55 range.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 17:15 ET (152,376.94) and again at 19:30 ET (60,282.89), correlating with price swings toward key resistance levels. Notional turnover increased during the 22:45–00:00 ET period, with the highest turnover recorded at $4.679. A divergence appeared between volume and price action between 02:00–04:00 ET, where price dropped but volume remained muted, suggesting possible lack of conviction in the short-term bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the $4.545–$4.701 move, key levels include the 61.8% retrace at $4.622 and the 38.2% retrace at $4.656. Price has held above the 61.8% level, suggesting that a test of the 78.6% retrace at $4.685 could be the next potential target. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retrace from the $4.50–$4.80 swing is at $4.66, which could serve as a potential resistance ahead.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve a long setup on a bullish engulfing pattern forming above the 20-period SMA with confirmation from the MACD turning positive. Entry could occur at the close of the engulfing candle, with a stop-loss placed below the 50-period SMA and a target aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace. Given the recent behavior of ICPUSDT, this strategy may perform well in a moderate bullish trend but could face risks during high volatility or false breakouts.