Internet Computer/Tether (ICPUSDT) Market Overview

• ICPUSDT declined by -18.2% over 24 hours, closing at $7.05 from a high of $8.11.
• Key support seen at $6.96, with bearish divergence in RSI and MACD.
• Volatility expanded, with high turnover near $7.26 and sharp decline afterward.
• Bollinger Bands widened, and price drifted below 20/50-period SMAs.
• Fibonacci retracement levels suggest potential retest of $6.85 and $6.73.

Internet Computer/Tether (ICPUSDT) opened at $7.52 and closed at $7.05 after 24 hours, with a high of $8.11 and a low of $6.58. The total volume traded was 21,777,654.65 ICP, and the notional turnover amounted to $156.96 million. The pair has shown a clear bearish drift, with price breaking below key moving averages.

Structure & Formations

Price has formed a descending channel over the last 24 hours, with resistance clustering near $7.20–7.26 and support near $6.96–6.97. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed at $7.26, followed by a long lower wick at $6.96, indicating potential short-term support. Doji candles emerged at key Fibonacci levels ($7.05, $6.96), signaling indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, ICPUSDT closed below both the 20-period ($7.34) and 50-period ($7.51) SMAs. The 50-period SMA has acted as a key resistance level, with multiple rejections. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is at $7.80, 100-period at $7.95, and 200-period at $8.05, suggesting a bearish alignment.

MACD & RSI

MACD remains in negative territory, with the histogram contracting as price approaches key support. A bearish divergence appeared between price and RSI around $7.26, where price made a higher high while RSI made a lower high. RSI has since dropped to 35, indicating oversold conditions, but momentum remains bearish. A reversal may be possible if RSI rebounds above 40 with volume confirmation.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly, reflecting heightened volatility, with price trading near the lower band for most of the session. The 20-period band width is currently at 18%, indicating a potential for a consolidation phase or countertrend move if the lower band at $6.85–6.90 holds.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked near $7.26 with a turnover of $15.7 million in a single 15-minute interval, suggesting strong bearish pressure. However, volume has declined as price dropped toward $6.96, indicating weakening momentum. A divergence between price and volume is visible below $7.10, hinting at a potential near-term bottom.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the recent $8.11 high to $6.58 low show key retracement levels at $7.16 (23.6%), $7.05 (38.2%), and $6.93 (50%). ICPUSDT closed at $7.05, aligning with the 38.2% level, and a retest of the 50% level at $6.93 may be imminent. A break below $6.85 could trigger the 61.8% level at $6.73.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential strategy for ICPUSDT involves entering long positions on bullish MACD divergence (price makes a lower low while MACD makes a higher low), indicating a probable reversal. Once in the trade, the exit is triggered when price closes below the 50-period SMA, which acts as a strong bearish signal. Given the recent bearish divergence and oversold RSI, a buy entry may be plausible near $6.96–6.93 if price retraces with confirmation from volume and MACD. However, the 50-period SMA at $7.05 may serve as a critical exit level.