Internet Computer/Tether (ICPUSDT) Market Overview

• Internet Computer/Tether (ICPUSDT) fell to $4.285 on 24-hour 15-minute data, marking a key support test.
• A sharp selloff occurred after 06:15 ET, with price dropping over $0.40 in a 3-hour window.
• Volume spiked near the session low, confirming bearish momentum but showing limited follow-through.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the selloff, indicating heightened volatility.
• RSI reached oversold territory near 25, suggesting potential for short-term bounce but not reversal.

Opening Narrative

Internet Computer/Tether (ICPUSDT) opened at $4.743 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at $4.285 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour low was $4.282, and the high was $4.758. Total traded volume was 3,159,067.24 ICP, and notional turnover was $13,178,316.84.

Structure & Formations

Price broke below a key horizontal support at $4.300 around 06:00 ET and continued lower toward $4.282, which appears to be a recent floor. A bearish engulfing pattern formed during the early session low, and a long lower shadow on the 06:15 ET candle suggested rejection at $4.285. A potential short-term support is forming near $4.280–$4.285, while the first resistance level is at $4.350–$4.360 based on prior retracement levels.

Moving Averages

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a steep bearish crossover, confirming the downward trend. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period moving averages are diverging with price, suggesting a possible exhaustion in the bearish momentum. The 200-period daily MA is at $4.500, which is a key psychological level for medium-term traders to watch.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned strongly negative during the 06:00–09:00 ET period, aligning with the sharp sell-off. RSI reached an oversold level of 25 at $4.285, indicating a potential short-term bounce is more likely than a reversal. Momentum appears to have stalled, with MACD crossing below zero during the sell-off and RSI failing to show follow-through strength on attempted rallies.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the 06:00–09:00 ET window, reflecting heightened volatility. Price remained below the lower band for most of the session, confirming bearish bias. However, the recent contraction suggests that a reversal or continuation move could be imminent. Price has been trading within the bands since 09:30 ET, but it has remained near the lower boundary, signaling a test of support.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged near the session low, particularly between 06:00 and 09:00 ET, confirming the strength of the sell-off. Notional turnover spiked during this period, reaching over $1.3 million per hour, which is significantly above average. However, the subsequent lack of follow-through volume on attempted rallies suggests that sellers may be exhausted. A divergence between price and volume has formed on the hourly chart, which could signal a potential short-term reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent swing high at $4.758 to the swing low at $4.282, the 61.8% level is near $4.450, and the 38.2% level is at $4.590. The 50% retracement sits at $4.520, which is close to the 200-period daily MA. These levels represent potential areas for buyers to enter or short-sellers to tighten stops. A rebound above $4.450 could invite more aggressive bearish positioning.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described aims to capture short-term mean reversion in ICPUSDT by entering long positions when RSI drops below 30 and the price closes above the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart. This setup was observed near $4.285 in the latest session, where RSI hit oversold levels and the 50-period MA crossed above a steeper downtrend. If price holds above $4.300, this could validate the mean-reversion signal. A stop-loss near $4.270 and a target of $4.350 would align with the strategy’s risk-reward profile.