Internet Computer/Tether (ICPUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-10-07

• Price declined by -8.3% over the last 24 hours, with a key low at $4.404.
• Volume surged to $6.0M in the final hour, but failed to confirm a strong reversal.
• RSI entered oversold territory (35), suggesting potential near-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion, reflecting increased volatility.
• A bullish hammer formed at 08:15 ET, but subsequent selling pressure negated its strength.

Internet Computer/Tether (ICPUSDT) opened at $4.668 on 2025-10-06 12:00 ET and closed at $4.405 as of 2025-10-07 12:00 ET, with a daily high of $4.685 and a low of $4.388. Total volume for the 24-hour period was ~483,000 ICP, with a notional turnover of $2,155,646. The price action has been bearish, with a clear breakdown from recent resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the last 24 hours has shown a decisive breakdown from key resistance levels around $4.65–$4.68. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed at 19:00 ET, confirming a shift in momentum. A small hammer appeared at 08:15 ET, hinting at a short-term bounce, but subsequent selling overwhelmed buyers. A doji at 12:00 ET-1 suggests indecision, but sellers regained control shortly after.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20 EMA and 50 EMA, confirming bearish momentum. On the daily chart, ICPUSDT remains below the 50/100/200 SMAs, reinforcing the downtrend. The 20 EMA has crossed below the 50 EMA on shorter timeframes, a bearish signal.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has crossed below the signal line and remains in negative territory, confirming bearish momentum. RSI has dropped to 35, suggesting the pair is oversold, but bearish divergence between price and RSI during the breakdown suggests further downside could follow before any bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the breakdown at 19:00 ET, indicating rising volatility. Price has spent most of the 24-hour period trading below the lower band, suggesting strong bearish pressure. A potential bounce may occur if price closes above the lower band with volume support.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to $6.0M at the close of the 24-hour period, but failed to produce a strong reversal candle, suggesting distribution rather than accumulation. Turnover spiked during the breakdown and the final hour, indicating high liquidity turnover and increased selling. A divergence between rising volume and falling price could signal exhaustion in the short term.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price tested the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $4.54–4.55 before breaking down. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level at $4.50–4.52 appears to offer temporary support. A bounce from this level could target the 23.6% at $4.56, but confirmation of a reversal would require a sustained close above $4.61.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for ICPUSDT could involve entering long positions when RSI dips below 35 and price closes above the 20 EMA on the 15-minute chart, provided volume increases by at least 25% from the previous hour. This strategy would aim to capture short-term bounces in an otherwise bearish context, with stops placed below the 50 EMA. Given the recent breakdown and oversold conditions, this approach might offer a high-risk, high-reward trade for swing traders.