International Petroleum Corporation's Buyback Blitz: A Signal of Value and a Catalyst for Growth

In a world where energy markets oscillate between volatility and geopolitical tension, International Petroleum Corporation (IPC) is making a bold statement: its stock is undervalued, and it’s willing to back that belief with billions. With 76% of its Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) share repurchase program already executed and over 5.7 million shares canceled since December 2024, IPC is aggressively reducing its outstanding share count—a move that not only signals confidence in its valuation but also positions it as a rare buyback-driven opportunity in an otherwise uncertain sector.

The math is compelling. By reducing shares outstanding by ~6.5% since 2023, IPC has already boosted earnings per share (EPS) and free cash flow (FCF) per share metrics, with further upside as the remaining 1.77 million shares under its NCIB are repurchased by December 2025. This disciplined capital allocation, combined with IPC’s Lundin Group pedigree and a portfolio of high-quality, low-decline assets, creates a compelling case for investors to act now.

The NCIB: A Catalyst for Value Creation

IPC’s NCIB, launched in December 2024 with an authorized limit of 7.46 million shares, has been executed with urgency. Over 5.7 million shares have been repurchased to date, with the remaining capacity representing 23% of the total program still available. This leaves IPC with the flexibility to continue accretive buybacks even as it pursues organic growth.

The accretive impact is clear: reducing the outstanding share count by ~6.5% directly lifts EPS and FCF per share. For example, if IPC’s 2024 FCF of $1.5 billion (excluding Blackrod Phase 1) is applied to the reduced share count, per-share metrics improve by a proportional amount—a tailwind for equity holders. Meanwhile, the remaining buyback capacity acts as a “floor” for the stock price, as management’s actions suggest shares are undervalued at current levels.

The Lundin Advantage: A Track Record of Value Creation

IPC’s ties to the Lundin Group—a family-led energy dynasty with over 50 years of experience—provide a critical edge. Since its 2017 spin-off from Lundin Energy, IPC has focused on high-return assets and financial discipline, returning $500 million to shareholders through buybacks while growing reserves and production. In 2024 alone, the company achieved a 250% reserves replacement ratio, ending the year with 493 MMboe of proved-plus-probable reserves—the highest in its history.

This track record is underpinned by assets like the Blackrod Phase 1 SAGD project in Canada, which hosts 259 MMboe of 2P reserves and 1.1 billion barrels of contingent resources at a low cost of $0.15 per barrel. With over two-thirds of its $850 million capital budget already invested, Blackrod is on track to deliver peak production of 30,000 barrels per day (bopd) by 2028—a growth lever that will further amplify FCF and buyback capacity.

Resilience in a Volatile World

IPC’s balance sheet and hedging strategies provide a shield against macro risks, including oil price swings and U.S. tariffs on Canadian crude. With $247 million in cash, $320 million in 2025 capital expenditure guidance, and hedges covering ~40% of its 2025 oil exposure at $76/71 per barrel, the company is insulated against downside scenarios. Meanwhile, its $17 per boe operating costs—among the lowest in its peer group—enhance margins even in low-price environments.

Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) compliance further bolsters IPC’s profile. The company aims to cut net GHG emissions intensity by 50% by 2025—a target it is on track to meet—while maintaining operational safety standards that have avoided major incidents for years.

Why the Stock Is Undervalued—and a Buying Opportunity

Despite IPC’s strengths, its stock trades at a discount to its peers, reflecting broader sector pessimism rather than fundamentals. With a reserves life index of 31 years (vs. an industry average of ~15 years) and a 2025–2034 FCF forecast of $1.2–2.6 billion, IPC’s valuation appears out of sync with its long-term potential.

The buyback momentum alone suggests a compelling entry point. For shareholders, the NCIB’s remaining capacity acts as a “call option” on the company’s value—management’s willingness to repurchase shares at current prices implies that intrinsic value exceeds market pricing.

Conclusion: Act Now Before the Buyback潮 Floods In

IPC is not just a beneficiary of high oil prices—it’s a disciplined allocator of capital with a proven ability to grow reserves and returns. With $1.7 billion remaining under its NCIB, a $17/boe cost structure, and a Blackrod project that could add decades of production, the company is poised to outperform in both strong and weak commodity cycles.

The question for investors is clear: Why wait for others to recognize IPC’s value when the buyback潮 is already in motion? With shares trading at a discount and management’s actions signaling confidence, now is the time to position for the next phase of this Lundin-backed energy powerhouse.

The buyback math is undeniable, the Lundin legacy is unshakable, and the undervaluation is unsustainable. Don’t miss the wave.