International Paper Jumps 5.59% To $49.45 As Technicals Signal Bullish Breakout

Candlestick Theory
International Paper closed at $49.45 on 2025-07-01, forming a robust bullish candle with a 5.59% gain that engulfed the prior three sessions’ range. The price breached resistance near $47.80 (June highs), converting it to support. A multi-month resistance zone persists at $50.00–$50.60, aligning with April and May swing highs. The hammer candlestick at $46.25 (2025-06-24) marked a significant support floor. Recent price action suggests bullish momentum, though the $50 psychological barrier requires monitoring for rejection signals.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA (~$48.10) crossed above the 100-day SMA (~$48.60) in late June, signaling improving intermediate momentum. However, the 200-day SMA (~$50.20) caps upside progress, with the price currently trading below this long-term trend proxy. The 07-01 close above the 50-day and 100-day SMAs supports near-term bullishness, but sustained trading above the 200-day SMA is needed to confirm a structural trend reversal.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) generated a bullish crossover on June 27, with the histogram expanding positively into July 1. Meanwhile, KDJ entered overbought territory (K: 82, D: 75, J: 96), suggesting stretched near-term momentum. While MACD supports continuation upside, KDJ’s overbought reading increases near-term pullback probability. This divergence merits vigilance, though no bearish crossover is yet evident.
Bollinger Bands
The July 1 close touched the upper Bollinger Band (~$49.50), coinciding with the 5.59% surge. This followed a volatility contraction in late June, where bandwidth narrowed by 15%. The expansion confirms bullish breakout validity. However, prices near the upper band historically precede consolidation; sustainability above $49.50 would signal exceptional strength.
Volume-Price Relationship
The 5.59% rally on July 1 occurred alongside 3.66M shares traded—33% above the 30-day average. This volume confirmation underscores conviction in the breakout. Notably, prior resistance tests (May’s $50.60 high) saw volume decline, indicating weak momentum. The current volume surge enhances breakout credibility, though follow-through volume is critical.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI rose to 68 on July 1, approaching overbought territory. While not yet breaching 70, this rapid ascent from 42 (mid-June) reflects strengthening momentum. RSI divergence is absent, but the indicator’s approach to overbought aligns with KDJ warnings. Historically, RSI >70 has preceded pullbacks in IP, warranting caution.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the $56.35 high (2025-02-28) and $42.35 low (2024-07-11), key retracement levels are $45.68 (23.6%), $47.50 (38.2%), $49.35 (50.0%), and $51.20 (61.8%). The July 1 close at $49.45 decisively broke the 50% retracement. This level now becomes support, with the 61.8% retracement at $51.20 as the next upside target. Confluence exists as the 200-day SMA ($50.20) overlaps the 55% Fib level, reinforcing this resistance zone.
Synthesis
Technical confluence is strongest at the $50.00–$50.60 resistance, where the 200-day SMA, 55% Fibonacci level, and historical swing highs converge. Bullish catalysts include the MACD crossover, volume-confirmed breakout, and close above 50% retracement. However, overbought KDJ/RSI readings and upper Bollinger Band tag suggest near-term exhaustion risk. Divergence exists between MACD’s sustained bullish momentum and oscillators’ overbought warnings. Traders should watch for consolidation near $49.00–$49.50 support; a close above $50.60 would invalidate bearish divergences and target $51.20.