International Paper Gains 4.10% as Technical Indicators Signal Bullish Reversal

International Paper (IP) rose 4.10% in the most recent session, signaling a potential reversal from prior bearish momentum. This sharp upturn follows a period of consolidation and volatility, creating an opportunity to dissect key technical signals across multiple frameworks. Below is a structured analysis of the stock’s price behavior and indicators over the past year.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns suggest a bullish reversal is gaining traction. A large bullish engulfing pattern emerged on December 10, 2025, where the candle body fully consumed the preceding bearish session, indicating strong buying pressure. Key support levels are identified at $37.53 (December 9 low) and $36.32 (November 24 low), while resistance is clustered near $39.12 (December 10 close) and $43.03 (October 30 high). The price’s ability to hold above the $37.53 support is critical for maintaining the bullish bias, as a break below this level could trigger a retest of the $36.32 zone.
Moving Average Theory
Short-term momentum is aligned with the 50-day moving average (approximately $41.00 as of late December), which has crossed above the 200-day MA ($44.00), suggesting a medium-term bullish crossover. The 100-day MA ($42.50) currently acts as a dynamic support level, and the price’s recent close above this threshold reinforces the upward trend. However, the 200-day MA remains a significant hurdle, with the stock trading at a discount of ~7.5% relative to this long-term reference. A sustained breakout above the 200-day MA would likely accelerate the uptrend, while a pullback below the 50-day MA could reintroduce bearish pressure.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has turned positive in recent sessions, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, confirming strengthening momentum. The KDJ stochastic oscillator shows the stock entering overbought territory (K=85, D=78), which may signal a near-term pullback. However, the divergence between the KDJ and MACD—where the MACD remains bullish while KDJ peaks—suggests caution: while the trend is intact, aggressive traders may want to avoid overextending long positions without a confirmed breakout.

Bollinger Bands
Volatility has expanded in the past two weeks, with the upper band reaching $39.66 (December 5) and the lower band contracting to $37.55 (November 24). The price’s current position near the upper band ($39.12) indicates overbought conditions, increasing the probability of a retrace to the mid-band ($38.34). A sustained break above the upper band could extend the rally, but this would require a significant surge in volume to validate the move.
Volume-Price Relationship
Trading volume has surged in tandem with the recent 4.10% rally, with December 10’s session recording 6.78 million shares traded—well above the 30-day average of ~4.5 million. This volume surge corroborates the price action, suggesting strong institutional participation. Conversely, the October 30 session’s 12.66% selloff was accompanied by record volume (16.29 million shares), underscoring the bearish exhaustion that may have set the stage for the recent rebound.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI has climbed to 68, nearing overbought territory. While this does not necessarily signal a reversal, it highlights the stock’s recent strength. Historical data shows RSI frequently dipping below 30 during corrections, such as the October 30 selloff (RSI=22). A drop below 50 would likely trigger short-term profit-taking, but the RSI’s alignment with the MACD suggests the uptrend remains intact for now.
Fibonacci Retracement
Key Fibonacci levels derived from the October 30 low ($37.55) to the December 10 high ($39.12) include 38.2% at $38.50 and 50% at $38.81. The current price is hovering near the 61.8% retracement level ($39.03), which could act as a final resistance before a potential pullback. A break above this level would target the $39.66–$40.00 range, aligning with the upper Bollinger Band.

The confluence of bullish candlestick patterns, positive MACD, and elevated volume supports the view that International Paper is in a short-to-medium-term uptrend. However, the overbought RSI and KDJ levels, along with the Fibonacci 61.8% resistance, suggest a near-term consolidation phase is probable. Traders should monitor the $38.50–$38.81 zone for support, as a break below this range could reignite bearish momentum. Conversely, a sustained move above $39.12 would validate the next leg higher, aligning with the 200-day MA as a long-term target.