International Paper’s 0.48% Rally Hides Earnings Woes as 463rd Most-Traded Stock

On August 6, 2025, International Paper (IP) closed at $46.11 with a 0.48% gain, trading 0.25 billion shares, ranking 463rd in volume. The stock faced pressure following a weak Q2 earnings report, which missed estimates by 47.37% and 0.04%, driven by higher input costs and operational challenges. Despite a 42.9% year-over-year sales increase to $6.77 billion, adjusted earnings of $0.20 per share fell short of forecasts, triggering a sell-off that extended a 12.42% decline over 10 days.

Analysts revised their outlook as JPMorgan downgraded IP to Neutral from Overweight, citing overly optimistic 2025 and 2027 earnings expectations. The company also announced plans to divest its global cellulose fiber business by year-end but acknowledged “tough” market conditions. Technical indicators showed a broken short-term upward trend, with resistance at $46.14 and support at $46.06. Divergence between rising prices and declining volume raised concerns about potential reversals, while the MACD and moving averages signaled bearish momentum.

The stock’s volatility remained elevated, with a 2.79% intraday swing and an average weekly volatility of 4.46%. A $0.460 dividend is set for August 15, with an ex-dividend date of August 15. Short-term risk-reward dynamics appeared favorable near key support levels, though the sell signal from long-term indicators suggested caution. Strategic closures in North America and Europe, including layoffs, underscored cost-cutting efforts amid sector-wide challenges.

The strategy of purchasing the top 500 stocks by daily trading volume and holding them for one day delivered a 166.71% return from 2022 to the present, outperforming the benchmark return of 29.18% by 137.53%. This highlights the role of liquidity concentration in short-term stock performance, particularly in volatile markets. High-volume stocks like IP demonstrated responsiveness to market dynamics, though their performance remained tied to broader economic and sector-specific factors.