Interfor Corporation's Q1 2025 Earnings: A Resilient Start Amid Stormy Seas

In a world where lumber prices and trade wars can make or break a company, Interfor Corporation (IFSPF) just delivered a quarter that’s worth celebrating—and worrying about. Let’s dive into the numbers and the noise.

Key Takeaways
- Adjusted EBITDA of $49 million: A strong opening to 2025, fueled by higher sales realizations across all regions.
- U.S. dominance: 60% of assets are in the U.S., with a strategic split between the South (a lumber powerhouse) and the Pacific Northwest.
- Caution ahead: Management is bracing for geopolitical storms, trade policy chaos, and housing market headwinds.

The Good: A Solid Quarter, Despite the Sludge

Interfor’s Q1 results were a testament to its ability to navigate adversity. Despite adverse weather and lingering tariff uncertainties, all operating regions posted positive EBITDA. The U.S. South, in particular, shined, leveraging its position as a key lumber-producing hub.

The company also highlighted the resilience of U.S. single-family home construction starts—a critical demand driver—despite sky-high interest rates. This suggests that even in a tough housing market, there’s still some life left in the U.S. economy.

Check this chart to see if the stock is keeping pace with broader markets or lagging under pressure.

The Not-So-Good: Trade Wars and Tariff Tantrums

But here’s the catch: Interfor isn’t just fighting Mother Nature. It’s battling policy makers. Aggressive U.S. trade policies—think tariffs, quotas, and geopolitical spats—are creating “demand volatility,” as CEO Ian Fillinger put it. This isn’t just a blip; it’s a systemic risk that’s pushing Interfor to adopt a conservative outlook for 2025.

Translation? Management isn’t betting the farm on a rosy scenario. They’re hedging by prioritizing geographic diversification. But with 60% of assets already in the U.S., there’s limited room to shift elsewhere.

The Play: Geography as a Shield—or a Sword?

Interfor’s strategy of splitting its U.S. assets between the South and Pacific Northwest isn’t just about spreading risk. It’s about access to different markets. The South feeds into the housing sector, while the Pacific Northwest has stronger ties to industrial and export markets. This dual focus gives the company flexibility—but it’s still overexposed to U.S. policy whims.

This chart will show whether Interfor’s Q1 $49 million EBITDA is part of a trend or an outlier.

The Bottom Line: Buy, Hold, or Bail?

Here’s where it gets tricky. Interfor’s Q1 was a win, but the path ahead is murky. If the U.S. housing market holds up and trade tensions ease, this stock could soar. But with 60% of assets in the U.S.—and the White House’s trade policies being as predictable as a hurricane season—investors need to ask: Is this a bet on lumber, or a bet on Washington?

Final Verdict: Interfor is a hold for now. The Q1 numbers are strong, but the company’s reliance on U.S. demand and policy stability means investors should tread carefully. Keep an eye on two key metrics:
1. U.S. single-family housing starts (a direct demand indicator).
2. Trade policy updates (tariffs, quotas, and geopolitical dust-ups).

If the housing market keeps defying high rates and trade tensions cool, Interfor could be a lumberjack’s dream. But if either sputters, this stock might get cut down to size.

Final Stat: 60% of Interfor’s assets are in the U.S.—a double-edged sword. Investors, your call: risk or retreat?