Take-Two Interactive: Riding GTA VI's Wave to $9 Billion and Beyond

The gaming industry's next blockbuster is on the horizon, and Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) stands at the center of it. With its delayed but highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA VI) set for release in May 2026, the company is poised to capitalize on a decade of pent-up demand, a robust pipeline of titles, and a revenue trajectory aiming for $9 billion by fiscal 2027. Here's why investors should watch for dips ahead of the launch—and why 2028 could be a banner year for the stock.

The GTA VI Catalyst: A Once-in-a-Decade Opportunity

GTA VI's delay to fiscal 2027 (ending March 2027) has not dimmed its appeal. The game's second trailer garnered 475 million views in 24 hours, a testament to its cultural footprint. Analysts estimate GTA VI could generate over $2 billion in launch-week sales, surpassing the $1.1 billion debut of GTA V in 2013. This would fuel a $9 billion fiscal 2027 revenue target, driven by physical/digital sales, in-game purchases, and merchandise—a 60% jump from fiscal 2025's $5.6 billion guidance.

Pipeline Power: Beyond GTA VI

While GTA VI is the marquee event, Take-Two's product pipeline ensures sustained momentum. Upcoming titles like Borderlands 4 (2026) and Mafia: The Old Country (2026) will bolster fiscal 2026 bookings, while live-service franchises (Red Dead Online, GTA Online) and mobile hits (Toon Blast) contribute 81% of recurring revenue. This steady stream reduces reliance on one-time sales, a key defensive trait in volatile markets.

Valuation Risks: Near-Term Volatility vs. Long-Term Reward

Investors must brace for turbulence. Take-Two's stock dropped 6.7% when GTA VI's delay was announced in November 2024 but rebounded on strong trailer demand. Post-Q4 2025 earnings (ending March 2026), shares could face another test if guidance for fiscal 2027 falls short of $9 billion. However, this volatility creates a buying opportunity: the stock's historical recovery after dips (e.g., post-GTA V delays) suggests a rebound once GTA VI's financial impact becomes clear.

The 2028 Target: Bookings Momentum + Multiple Expansion

Analysts project Take-Two's bookings to hit $9 billion by fiscal 2027, but the real prize lies in multiple expansion. If GTA VI's sales justify a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 7—up from its current 5.5—shares could surge to $300 by 2028, a 50% gain from today's $200 price. Even in a downside scenario (e.g., $8 billion bookings), a P/S of 4.5 would still value the stock at $180, offering asymmetric upside.

Act Now: Buy the Dip, Own the Surge

The path to $300 is clear: 1. Q4 2025 earnings (March 2026) will confirm fiscal 2026 bookings momentum and set expectations for 2027.2. GTA VI's May 2026 launch will dominate headlines, driving engagement and revenue.3. Live-service resilience will stabilize cash flows beyond 2026, supporting a rising valuation.

The near-term risks are priced in. For investors with a 2-3 year horizon, buying on post-earnings dips is a strategic move. The $9 billion target is achievable, and the road to 2028's $300 price tag is paved with one of gaming's most iconic franchises.

Final Call: Take-Two's combination of blockbuster upside, recurring revenue, and underappreciated live-service strength makes it a buy now. Set a watchlist alert for post-Q4 earnings dips—this is a stock you want to own before the GTA VI wave hits.