Take-Two Interactive Outlook - Mixed Signals Amid Optimistic Analysts and Weak Technicals

Market Snapshot

Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) is currently in the spotlight with an overall price rise of 2.61% over the last 20 days, supported by a strong analyst consensus. However, the technical picture is less encouraging, with bearish signals dominating and an internal diagnostic score of 3.31 advising caution.

News Highlights

• China factory activity shows signs of improvement (May 2025). Although still in contraction, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.5, hinting at potential easing in global supply chains. This could benefit global gaming and tech companies like TTWO in the medium term.
• U.S. vaccine policy changes (May 29). New federal guidelines on the approval and targeting of vaccines could shift public sentiment and impact sectors like healthcare. While TTWO isn’t directly affected, broader market sentiment might influence its stock performance indirectly.
• India’s Supreme Court ruling (May 30). The verdict could increase tax burdens on online streaming platforms and gaming apps. TTWO has a global presence, and such rulings in key international markets could affect its cost structure and profitability in the long term.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

The market's view on TTWO is optimistic, with 8 active analysts from 8 institutions weighing in. The simple average rating score is 4.50, while the performance-weighted rating is 4.04. These scores suggest a moderate consensus leaning toward a Buy or Strong Buy recommendation.

There are differences in analyst views (i.e., no perfect alignment), but the weighted expectations match the current price rise, so sentiment appears well-aligned with market movement. Notable high-performing analysts include:

• Christopher Schoell (UBS) — 100% historical win rate
• Omar Dessouky (B of A Securities) — 100% historical win rate
• Cory Carpenter (JP Morgan) — 75% historical win rate

Key Fundamental Factors

• Annualized return on equity: -21.89% — Internal diagnostic score of 1.11 (weak).
• Total assets growth: 7.03% — Score of 2.28 (moderate).
• Profit-MV: -0.13 — Score of 3.71 (mildly positive).
• Shareholders’ equity growth: 2.30% — Score of 4.14 (positive).
• PCF (Price to Cash Flow): -191.80 — Score of 1.16 (very weak).
• Cash-MV: 5.40% — Score of 1.83 (weak).

The fundamental outlook is mixed, with some positive growth indicators (e.g., equity growth) offset by weak profitability and cash flow ratios.

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money flows are positive, with large and extra-large investors showing a 56.74% inflow ratio. Retail (small) flows are also up, at 50.39%, showing broad-based buying interest. The fund-flow score of 7.47 (internal diagnostic scale) suggests strong institutional backing for TTWO recently.

• Large flows: 48.32% inflow — bearish, but not conclusive.
• Extra-large flows: 56.74% inflow — strongly bullish.
• Overall inflow ratio: 54.20% — positive momentum.

Key Technical Signals

The technical outlook is weak, with an internal diagnostic score of 3.31. Bearish indicators dominate (2 vs. 0 bullish), and key signals like RSI Overbought and Williams %R Overbought suggest caution.

Recent Indicators by Date

• 2025-09-08: RSI Overbought and WR Overbought both appeared — bearish confirmation.
• 2025-09-05 to 2025-09-12: WR Overbought reappeared multiple times — indicating overbought conditions but weak follow-through.

Key insights from the technical model include:

• Market volatility is high, with unclear direction.
• Bearish signals are dominant (2 vs. 0 bullish).
• Technical indicators suggest a weak setup — it is advised to avoid at this time.

Conclusion

Take-Two Interactive is showing diverging signals — strong analyst optimism and money flow are being countered by weak technical indicators. With an internal diagnostic score of 3.31 for technicals and mixed fundamentals, investors might want to wait for a pullback before entering a position. The current price rise appears to be driven by institutional and analyst confidence, but technical conditions suggest caution.