Interactive Brokers Expands into Event Prediction Markets: A Strategic Leap into 24/6 Trading

Interactive Brokers (IBKR), a pioneer in global trading platforms, has embarked on a bold expansion into event prediction markets with its Forecast Contracts initiative. By extending trading access to 24 hours a day, six days a week, and launching these contracts in Canada, the firm is positioning itself at the forefront of a growing market for wagers on economic, political, and climate outcomes. This move not only reflects IBKR’s commitment to innovation but also underscores its ability to navigate regulatory landscapes while catering to evolving investor demands.

Ask Aime: "Is IBKR's Forecast Contracts a Game-Changer for Canadian Investors?"

The Canadian Launch: A Regulatory Milestone

On April 1, 2025, Interactive Brokers announced the availability of Forecast Contracts to Canadian investors. These contracts allow traders to bet on outcomes of events such as economic data releases, government policy decisions, and climate-related trends, with settlement values of $1.00 or $0.00 based on the event’s resolution. This expansion into Canada represents a significant regulatory achievement, as the contracts are offered through ForecastEx LLC, a subsidiary regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Canadian clients now join U.S. and Hong Kong investors in accessing this unique product, which leverages IBKR’s global infrastructure.

Ask Aime: "Can I bet on the stock market's performance with Forecast Contracts by Interactive Brokers?"

Operational Enhancements: 24/6 Trading Flexibility

Beyond geographic expansion, Interactive Brokers has redefined accessibility by enabling 24-hour trading Sunday through Friday. This “near-continuous” trading window allows investors to act swiftly on global events—such as central bank policy shifts or geopolitical developments—without waiting for traditional market hours. The move aligns with the firm’s broader strategy to cater to institutional and retail traders seeking real-time exposure to event-driven opportunities.

Regulatory Compliance as a Competitive Advantage

Interactive Brokers’ approach to regulation distinguishes it from peers. While competitors like Robinhood faced scrutiny for offering sports-related prediction markets (which often fall under gambling regulations), IBKR focuses on non-sports, economically relevant events. This strategy ensures compliance with the CFTC’s oversight of derivatives, minimizing regulatory risk. The avoidance of sports betting also sidesteps potential conflicts with state-level gaming laws, a lesson learned from competitors’ missteps.

The firm’s emphasis on transparency is another key pillar. Forecast Contracts are priced dynamically between $0.02 and $0.99, reflecting market-based probabilities of an event’s outcome. This structure, combined with clear settlement rules, aligns with the CFTC’s mandate to promote fair and efficient markets.

Market Demand and Growth Potential

The success of IBKR’s prediction markets is evident in their adoption. By October 2024, trading volume in U.S. election-related Forecast Contracts surpassed 1 million contracts, signaling strong investor interest in event-based speculation. With the Canadian expansion and 24/6 trading, this demand is poised to grow. The platform’s integration into IBKR’s ecosystem—accessible via **IBKR Mobile, Trader Workstation (TWS), and the dedicated ForecastTrader tool—further lowers barriers to participation.

Investment Implications

Interactive Brokers’ moves into prediction markets and extended trading hours signal a strategic shift toward diversifying revenue streams beyond traditional brokerage services. The firm’s $10.2 billion in assets under management (as of 2024) provide a robust foundation for scaling these initiatives. Meanwhile, the expansion into Canada taps into a market of 38 million investors, many of whom are increasingly tech-savvy and open to innovative trading tools.

Conclusion: A Calculated Risk with Clear Rewards

Interactive Brokers’ expansion into event prediction markets represents a calculated bet on the growing appetite for speculative tools tied to real-world outcomes. By leveraging its regulatory expertise and global platform, IBKR has positioned itself to capitalize on a niche with significant growth potential. The 24/6 trading model and Canadian launch are not just operational tweaks but strategic moves to dominate a space where demand is proven—1 million contracts in just one product line (U.S. elections) illustrate this clearly.

As the market for prediction-based trading matures, IBKR’s focus on regulatory compliance, geographic diversification, and platform innovation positions it as a leader in an emerging asset class. Investors watching IBKR’s stock performance will likely see these initiatives reflected in sustained growth, especially if the firm continues to expand its event-based offerings into new regions and asset categories. For traders, the ability to wager on critical events around the clock—while operating within a well-regulated framework—could redefine how markets respond to global news cycles.

In a world where every data point and policy shift holds financial significance, Interactive Brokers is proving that timing—and the tools to act on it—are everything.