Take-Two Interactive: Betting on Blockbusters to Fuel Record Revenue Growth Through Fiscal 2027

Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO), the gaming giant behind franchises like Grand Theft Auto and NBA 2K, has reaffirmed its ambitious plans to deliver sequential increases in Net Bookings and achieve record revenue levels in fiscal years 2026 and 2027. This strategy hinges on a delayed blockbuster release, a robust pipeline of sequels, and its dominant live-service model. Here’s what investors need to know.

The Fiscal Roadmap: Delayed GTA VI and the Path to Growth

Take-Two’s fiscal years end on March 31, meaning:
- Fiscal 2026 spans April 1, 2025–March 31, 2026
- Fiscal 2027 spans April 1, 2026–March 31, 2027

The company’s confidence stems from its “phenomenal pipeline” of titles, including:
1. Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA VI): Originally slated for Fall 2025, the game’s release was pushed to May 26, 2026, falling squarely within fiscal 2027. CEO Strauss Zelnick called this delay a “strategic move to refine the creative vision,” positioning GTA VI as a blockbuster capable of driving record sales.
2. Borderlands 4: Set for fiscal 2026, this sequel to the critically acclaimed loot shooter aims to replicate the success of Borderlands 3, which generated $1 billion in sales.
3. Mafia: The Old Country: A prequel to the Mafia Trilogy, targeting fiscal 2026, leveraging the franchise’s cult following.

The Live-Service Engine

Take-Two’s recurring revenue model is a cornerstone of its strategy. In Q2 fiscal 2025 (ended September 30, 2024), 81% of Net Bookings came from in-game purchases, subscriptions, and add-ons (e.g., GTA Online, Red Dead Online, and mobile hits like Toon Blast). This recurring revenue stream reduces reliance on one-time game sales and provides a stable base for future growth.

Risks and Challenges

While the outlook is optimistic, Take-Two faces hurdles:
- Execution Risk: The GTA VI delay underscores the unpredictability of game development. Further delays or poor reception could dent revenue.
- Market Saturation: The AAA gaming market is crowded, with competitors like Activision Blizzard and Electronic Arts (EA) vying for consumer attention.
- Economic Factors: Macroeconomic pressures (e.g., inflation, currency fluctuations) could reduce discretionary spending on games.

Financial Context and Guidance

Take-Two’s fiscal 2025 Net Bookings are guided to $5.55–$5.65 billion, with Q2 hitting $1.47 billion. Management has explicitly stated that fiscal 2026 and 2027 will surpass these figures, though no specific targets were provided. The company’s focus on owned intellectual property (IP) and live services suggests it can sustain growth even in a slowing market.

Investment Thesis

Take-Two’s strategy is a bet on its ability to:
1. Deliver high-margin AAA titles like GTA VI, which could generate $1.5–2 billion in its first year (per analyst estimates).
2. Expand its live-service revenue, which already accounts for the majority of Net Bookings.
3. Mitigate risks through diversification (e.g., mobile games, cross-platform releases).

Conclusion

Take-Two’s reiteration of “record levels” for fiscal 2026–2027 is backed by a compelling pipeline and a proven live-service model. With GTA VI now positioned as a fiscal 2027 anchor and Borderlands 4 set to boost fiscal 2026, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on its strengths. However, investors must weigh this optimism against execution risks and macroeconomic headwinds.

Final Analysis:
- Upside Catalyst: GTA VI’s success could propel Take-Two’s stock (currently at ~$125/share) toward $150–$175, depending on sales and engagement.
- Downside Risk: A $20–$30 drop is plausible if GTA VI underperforms or delays persist.

For long-term investors, Take-Two’s focus on high-value franchises and recurring revenue makes it a compelling play in the gaming sector—if you’re willing to tolerate near-term volatility.

Stay tuned for updates on GTA VI’s launch and fiscal 2026 results.