Intel Surges 4.75% Amid Speculation of Trump-Backed Government Stake

Summary
• Intel (INTC) surges 4.75% to $24.995, hitting an intraday high of $25.645
• Trump administration rumors of a stake in Intel’s Ohio chip complex drive momentum
• Turnover spikes to 251.79M shares, with RSI at 71.88 and MACD crossing into positive territory
• Sector peers like TSMC (-0.91%) underperform as Intel’s rally defies broader semiconductors weakness

Intel’s stock has erupted on Friday, fueled by reports that the Trump administration is considering a direct equity stake in the chipmaker to accelerate its Ohio manufacturing hub. The surge comes amid a broader U.S. push to reshore semiconductor production, with Intel’s shares trading near a 52-week high despite ongoing operational challenges. The move highlights the intersection of geopolitical strategy and corporate revival in a sector under intense scrutiny.

Government Stake Speculation Ignites Short-Term Bullish Momentum
The 4.75% intraday rally in Intel stems directly from Bloomberg reports that the Trump administration is in advanced talks to take a stake in the company’s Ohio chip complex. This potential investment would provide critical financial backing for Intel’s delayed $100B manufacturing project, which has been plagued by delays and technical hurdles. The White House’s involvement, while unconfirmed, signals a strategic pivot to bolster U.S. semiconductor leadership amid rising competition from China and TSMC. Intel’s CEO, Lip-Bu Tan, recently faced Trump’s public criticism over his ties to Chinese firms, but the administration’s apparent shift toward collaboration has reinvigorated investor sentiment. The stock’s surge aligns with broader U.S. efforts to secure semiconductor supply chains, including recent agreements with Nvidia and AMD to share 15% of China chip sales revenue with the government.

Semiconductor Sector Volatility Amid Divergent Government Strategies
While Intel’s stock soars on government stake speculation, the broader semiconductor sector remains fragmented. TSMC (TSM), the sector’s leader, fell 0.91% as investors reassess its competitive edge against Intel’s potential government-backed revival. Meanwhile, Trump’s aggressive tariff policies—threatening 200% levies on semiconductors—create uncertainty for export-dependent firms like AMD and Nvidia. The sector’s mixed performance underscores the dual impact of geopolitical interventions: direct financial support for Intel contrasts with punitive measures for rivals, creating a bifurcated landscape. Intel’s rally also coincides with China’s crackdown on rare earths stockpiling and its own investigations into U.S. chipmakers, highlighting the global stakes in semiconductor control.

Options and ETF Plays for a Volatile Semiconductor Sector
• GraniteShares 2x Long INTC Daily ETF (INTW): 9.65% intraday gain, leveraging Intel’s short-term momentum
• MACD: -0.033 (rising), RSI: 71.88 (overbought), 200D MA: 21.66 (below price)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 24.995 (above upper band of 24.29), signaling overextension
• Key Levels: Support at 23.40–23.50, resistance at 25.64 (intraday high)

Two top options from the chain:
• INTC20250822C24: Call option with strike $24, expiring 8/22. IV: 66.61%, leverage ratio: 16.81%, delta: 0.66, theta: -0.1366, gamma: 0.1485, turnover: $1.68M. High liquidity and moderate delta make this ideal for a continuation of the rally. Payoff at 5% upside (target $26.25): $2.25/share.
• INTC20250822C24.5: Call option with strike $24.5, expiring 8/22. IV: 66.85%, leverage ratio: 20.91%, delta: 0.585, theta: -0.1317, gamma: 0.1583, turnover: $1.90M. Strong gamma and IV suggest sensitivity to price swings. Payoff at 5% upside (target $26.25): $1.75/share.

Aggressive bulls should prioritize INTC20250822C24 for a short-term trade, while INTW offers leveraged exposure to Intel’s momentum. Cautious investors may hedge with INTC20250822P24 (put option) to protect against a pullback below $24.50.

Backtest Intel Stock Performance
The backtest of Intel's (INTC) performance after an intraday surge of 5% or more reveals mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is 47.66%, indicating a slightly majority of days with a positive return, the 10-day and 30-day win rates are lower at 47.49% and 47.66%, respectively. This suggests that while Intel may experience short-term gains, longer-term returns are more variable. The maximum return during the backtest period was -0.11%, which occurred on day 30, indicating a potential for slight underperformance in the longer term following a strong intraday rebound.

Capitalizing on Geopolitical Tailwinds: Immediate Action Required
Intel’s 4.75% surge reflects the market’s appetite for government-backed revival in a sector defined by geopolitical stakes. While the stock’s technicals suggest overbought conditions (RSI at 71.88), the narrative of U.S. intervention in semiconductor manufacturing provides a strong near-term catalyst. Investors should monitor the 23.40–23.50 support zone and the 25.64 intraday high as critical levels. TSMC’s -0.91% decline highlights the sector’s divergence, with Trump’s mixed policy approach creating both opportunities and risks. For immediate action, INTW and INTC20250822C24 offer the most compelling plays, but position sizing should account for the sector’s volatility. Watch for confirmation of the government stake by Monday’s close—failure to follow through could trigger a sharp reversal.