Intel Surges 3.58% on Trump Meeting Drama: Can This Momentum Sustain?

Summary
• Intel (INTC) surges 3.58% to $21.39 amid post-meeting optimism with President Trump
• CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s White House visit follows Trump’s abrupt resignation demand last week
• Sector peers like AMD and NVIDIA show muted gains, highlighting Intel’s unique catalyst

Intel’s stock has staged a dramatic rebound, surging 3.58% to $21.39 in intraday trading following a high-stakes meeting between CEO Lip-Bu Tan and President Trump. The move comes after Trump’s explosive call for Tan’s resignation last week, creating a volatile narrative around the chipmaker’s leadership. With the stock trading near its 52-week high of $27.55, investors are weighing the geopolitical implications of Tan’s White House visit against broader semiconductor sector headwinds.

Trump-Tan Meeting Sparks Volatility and Optimism
Intel’s sharp intraday rally stems from a dramatic political intervention. After President Trump publicly demanded CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s resignation last week, citing concerns over Tan’s ties to Chinese ventures, the situation reversed following a White House meeting. Trump’s Truth Social post describing the discussion as 'a very interesting one' and his pledge to collaborate with Tan’s team has ignited short-term optimism. The stock’s 3.58% gain reflects market relief over the de-escalation, despite lingering questions about Tan’s background. Intel’s statement emphasizing its commitment to 'U.S. technology and manufacturing leadership' further reinforced investor confidence.

Semiconductor Sector Faces Geopolitical Crosscurrents as AMD Trails
The broader semiconductor sector remains under pressure from U.S.-China trade tensions and regulatory scrutiny. While Intel’s stock surged, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) posted a modest 0.88% intraday gain, underscoring the unique catalyst driving Intel’s move. Sector news highlights China’s struggles with chip 'national champions' and U.S. export controls, with NVIDIA facing investigations over alleged security risks. Intel’s rally contrasts with peers like Samsung and TSMC, which grapple with production challenges and geopolitical tariffs. The divergence suggests Intel’s stock is being valued on its distinct political narrative rather than sector-wide trends.

Options Playbook: Leveraging Volatility with INTC20250815C21.5 and INTC20250822C21
• MACD: -0.588 (bearish divergence), Signal Line: -0.478 (oversold), Histogram: -0.11 (negative momentum)
• RSI: 31.63 (oversold territory), Bollinger Bands: $18.29–$24.29 (price near lower band)
• 200-day MA: $21.65 (slightly above current price), Turnover Rate: 1.31% (moderate liquidity)

Intel’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish setup amid oversold conditions. Key support lies at $19.76 (30D support), while resistance targets $21.50 (intraday high). The RSI at 31.63 indicates potential for a rebound, though the bearish MACD (-0.588) warns of lingering long-term pressure. For options traders, two contracts stand out:

• INTC20250815C21.5
- Strike: $21.50, Expiration: 8/15, IV: 48.38%, Leverage: 53.55%, Delta: 0.485, Theta: -0.1607, Gamma: 0.367
- IV (48.38%) suggests moderate volatility expectations; Leverage (53.55%) amplifies returns on price moves; Delta (0.485) balances sensitivity and liquidity; Gamma (0.367) ensures responsiveness to price swings. A 5% upside to $22.46 would yield a payoff of $0.96 per contract, offering 18.7% return on premium.

• INTC20250822C21
- Strike: $21.00, Expiration: 8/22, IV: 45.81%, Leverage: 23.28%, Delta: 0.620, Theta: -0.0775, Gamma: 0.2235
- IV (45.81%) reflects stable volatility; Delta (0.620) offers directional sensitivity; Gamma (0.2235) ensures moderate responsiveness. A 5% move to $22.46 would generate a $1.46 payoff, translating to 29.2% return. This contract balances liquidity and directional exposure.

Aggressive bulls should consider INTC20250815C21.5 into a break above $21.50.

Backtest Intel Stock Performance
Following an intraday increase of 4% in Intel's stock price, the likelihood of a positive short-to-medium-term gain is relatively low. The backtest data reveals a poor win rate and negative returns over various time frames, indicating that such a surge is often followed by a decline rather than further gains.

Act Now: Intel’s Trump-Driven Rally Faces Crucial Support Test
Intel’s 3.58% surge hinges on the sustainability of its Trump-driven narrative. While the stock trades near its 52-week low of $17.67, the RSI at 31.63 and oversold conditions suggest a potential rebound. However, the bearish MACD (-0.588) and 200-day MA at $21.65 caution against over-optimism. Investors should monitor the $20.76 intraday low as a critical support level. Meanwhile, AMD’s 0.88% gain highlights sector-wide caution. Watch for a break above $21.50 or a breakdown below $20.76 to dictate next steps.