Intel Surges 3.16% Amid Trump-Era Government Stake Speculation: What’s Driving the Rally?

Summary
• Intel (INTC) surges 3.16% to $24.6153, hitting an intraday high of $25.645
• Trump administration rumors of a stake in Intel’s Ohio chip complex fuel optimism
• Sector peers like TSMC (-0.8%) and AMD face regulatory and competitive headwinds
Intel’s stock has surged over 3% in volatile intraday trading, driven by reports of the Trump administration considering a stake in the chipmaker’s Ohio manufacturing project. The move follows a contentious meeting between President Trump and CEO Lip-Bu Tan, who faces scrutiny over ties to Chinese firms. With Intel’s Ohio plant delayed to the 2030s and its AI ambitions lagging rivals, the potential government backing has sparked a short-term rally despite long-term challenges.

Trump’s Ohio Chip Complex Gambit Ignites Short-Term Optimism
Intel’s sharp intraday rally stems from Bloomberg reports that the Trump administration is exploring a stake in the company’s Ohio chip manufacturing complex. This potential investment could provide critical financial and strategic support for Intel’s delayed $100 billion project, which has been pushed to the 2030s due to technical and financial hurdles. The news follows a high-profile meeting between Trump and CEO Lip-Bu Tan, where the president initially demanded Tan’s resignation over alleged conflicts with Chinese tech firms but later softened his stance. While Intel has not confirmed the deal, analysts suggest government backing could stabilize its foundry business and align with Trump’s broader reshoring agenda, even as the company struggles to compete with TSMC and AMD in advanced nodes and AI chips.

Semiconductor Sector Volatility: Intel’s Rally Amid Mixed Peers
The semiconductor sector remains fragmented as Intel’s rally contrasts with broader headwinds. TSMC (TSM), the sector leader, fell 0.8% on concerns over its 18A node quality issues and competition from Intel’s delayed Ohio plant. Meanwhile, AMD and Nvidia face regulatory scrutiny in China, with the U.S. government recently securing 15% revenue shares from their China chip sales. Intel’s potential government stake highlights the administration’s push to bolster domestic manufacturing, but its long-term viability depends on resolving technical bottlenecks and attracting customers for its foundry services. The sector’s mixed performance underscores the delicate balance between geopolitical support and operational execution.

Options and ETF Plays: Capitalizing on Intel’s Volatility
• GraniteShares 2x Long INTC Daily ETF (INTW): Bold INTW at $22.86, up 6.77%
• 200-day MA: $21.66 (below current price), RSI: 71.88 (overbought), MACD: -0.03 (bullish divergence), Bollinger Bands: $18.24–$24.29 (price near upper band)
Intel’s technicals suggest short-term bullish momentum, with RSI nearing overbought territory and MACD showing divergence. The 200-day MA at $21.66 acts as a key support level, while the Bollinger upper band at $24.29 indicates near-term resistance. The GraniteShares 2x Long INTC Daily ETF (INTW) offers amplified exposure to Intel’s volatility, currently up 6.77% as of 19:39 ET.
Top Options Plays:
• INTC20250822C24.5 (Call, $24.5 strike, 8/22 expiry): IV 63.57%, leverage 24.63%, delta 0.545, theta -0.124, gamma 0.171, turnover $2.02M
• INTC20250822C25 (Call, $25 strike, 8/22 expiry): IV 65.79%, leverage 30.79%, delta 0.462, theta -0.116, gamma 0.166, turnover $6.90M
INTC20250822C24.5 offers a balanced risk-reward profile with moderate delta (0.545) and high gamma (0.171), making it sensitive to price swings. A 5% upside to $25.85 would yield a payoff of $1.35 per contract. INTC20250822C25 provides higher leverage (30.79%) and liquidity, ideal for aggressive bulls expecting a breakout above $25. A 5% move would generate a $0.85 payoff. Both contracts benefit from elevated IV and strong gamma, amplifying gains in a volatile environment. Aggressive bulls may consider INTC20250822C25 into a test of $25.50, while conservative traders could use INTC20250822C24.5 as a core position.

Backtest Intel Stock Performance
The 3% intraday surge in Intel's stock price has historically led to mixed short-to-medium-term performance. While the 3-day win rate is 47.51%, indicating a majority of days experiencing a positive return in the initial three days, the overall trend over 10 and 30 days shows a higher probability of negative returns. The 10-day win rate is 47.34%, and the 30-day win rate is 47.67%, with returns of -0.77% and -1.73% respectively. This suggests that while there is a good chance of a positive reaction in the immediate aftermath of the surge, the stock tends to experience downward pressure in the following days.

Act Now: Intel’s Rally Faces Crucial Crossroads
Intel’s intraday surge hinges on the Trump administration’s potential stake and its ability to execute on the Ohio plant. While technicals favor a short-term bullish bias, long-term success depends on resolving 18A node issues and attracting foundry customers. Investors should monitor the $24.50 support and $25.50 resistance levels, with the GraniteShares 2x Long INTC Daily ETF (INTW) offering amplified exposure. Sector leader TSMC (-0.8%) remains a key benchmark, but Intel’s government-backed narrative could diverge. Watch for a $25.50 breakout or a breakdown below $24.11 to dictate next steps.