Intel Surges 3.04% on Antitrust Approval and Production Breakthrough – Is This the Catalyst for a New Bull Run?

Summary
• U.S. antitrust agencies cleared Nvidia's $5B investment in Intel, signaling regulatory green light for strategic collaboration.
• Intel's 18A node production in Arizona hits high-volume output, marking a critical step in its foundry revival.
• Stock trades at $37.385, up from $36.47 open, with intraday high of $37.55 and low of $36.47.

Intel's 3.04% rally on December 19, 2025, reflects a confluence of regulatory clarity and operational progress. The stock's sharp intraday move follows the FTC's approval of Nvidia's investment and confirmation that Intel's 18A node is now in mass production. With the sector leader TSMC up 2.07%, investors are weighing whether Intel's production milestones and strategic partnerships can sustain this momentum.

Nvidia-Intel Antitrust Approval Fuels Optimism
The U.S. Federal Trade Commission's clearance of Nvidia's $5 billion investment in Intel has ignited investor confidence, signaling a regulatory green light for the partnership. This deal, announced in September, positions Nvidia to bolster Intel's foundry capabilities while securing access to advanced manufacturing. Simultaneously, Intel's confirmation that its 18A node is in high-volume production at the Arizona fab—despite yield challenges—has reinforced optimism about its ability to compete with TSMC. The combination of strategic capital inflow and production progress has driven the stock's 3.04% surge.

Semiconductor Sector Rally: Intel Outpaces TSMC as Production Hopes Rise
The semiconductor sector has seen mixed momentum, with Intel's 3.04% gain outpacing TSMC's 2.07% rise. While TSMC remains the industry's dominant foundry, Intel's recent production milestones and strategic partnerships have created a narrative of renewed competitiveness. The sector's broader optimism is fueled by AI-driven demand and geopolitical shifts, but Intel's ability to secure major foundry customers remains a critical test for its long-term revival.

Options Playbook: Leveraged ETFs and High-Gamma Contracts for Intel's Volatile Move
• RSI: 35.75 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.0196 (bearish), Signal Line: 0.5451 (bullish)
• Bollinger Bands: $32.89–$44.34 (wide range)
• 200D MA: $26.87 (far below current price)

Intel's technicals suggest a short-term bullish setup amid oversold conditions. The stock is trading above its 30D MA ($37.92) but remains well above its 200D MA, indicating a potential breakout. The GraniteShares 2x Long INTC Daily ETF (INTW) and Direxion Daily INTC Bull 2X ETF (LINT) offer leveraged exposure, with INTW up 6.44% and LINT up 6.39% today. These ETFs amplify directional bets on Intel's near-term volatility.

Top Options Picks:
• INTC20251226C37
- Type: Call
- Strike: $37.50
- Expiration: 2025-12-26
- IV: 32.93% (moderate)
- Leverage: 37.47%
- Delta: 0.6176 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.1576 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.2089 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: 178,125
- Payoff (5% upside): $0.89 per contract
- Why: High gamma and moderate delta make this call ideal for a continuation of the rally, with strong liquidity to manage entry/exit.

• INTC20251226C38.5
- Type: Call
- Strike: $38.50
- Expiration: 2025-12-26
- IV: 38.32% (high)
- Leverage: 83.26%
- Delta: 0.3314 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.1098 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1707 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 51,018
- Payoff (5% upside): $0.39 per contract
- Why: High leverage and gamma position this call to benefit from a breakout above $38.50, with IV suggesting market anticipation of volatility.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider INTC20251226C37 into a test of $37.55, while INTC20251226C38.5 offers a high-leverage play on a sustained rally.

Backtest Intel Stock Performance
The backtest of Intel's (INTC) performance after an intraday surge of at least 3% from 2022 to the present shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is 47.19%, indicating a moderate short-term success, the 10-day win rate drops to 46.57% and the 30-day win rate falls further to 51.56%. This suggests that INTC tends to perform well in the immediate aftermath of a significant price increase, but the longer-term returns are lackluster, with a maximum return of only 0.90% over 30 days.

Bullish Setup Confirmed: Intel's Breakout Could Signal a New Era
Intel's 3.04% surge on antitrust clearance and production progress underscores its potential to reposition as a viable foundry competitor. While the stock faces challenges in securing major customers, the combination of strategic capital and operational milestones creates a compelling near-term narrative. Investors should monitor the $37.55 intraday high as a key resistance level; a break above this could trigger a retest of the 52-week high at $44.02. Meanwhile, sector leader TSMC (TSM) up 2.07% highlights the competitive landscape. For those seeking directional exposure, leveraged ETFs and high-gamma options offer amplified participation in Intel's potential breakout.