Intel Surges 2.74% Amid AI Turnaround Hopes and Strategic Shifts

Summary
• Intel (INTC) trades at $37.275, up 2.74% intraday on 14.2M shares
• Intraday range spans $36.47 to $37.505, reflecting aggressive buying
• Sector peers like AMD (+3.28%) and TSMC (+1.19%) show mixed momentum
Intel’s sharp intraday rally reflects renewed investor confidence in its AI-driven turnaround strategy. With the stock trading near its 52-week high of $44.02, the move aligns with broader semiconductor sector optimism fueled by AI infrastructure demand and strategic manufacturing advancements.

AI Manufacturing Momentum and Strategic Acquisitions Drive Intel's Rally
Intel’s 2.74% intraday surge stems from two key catalysts: 1) The company’s Arizona 18A node entering high-volume production, positioning it to compete with TSMC’s 2nm tech, and 2) a $1.6B acquisition of AI startup SambaNova to accelerate enterprise AI solutions. These moves signal a shift from internal R&D to demand-backed partnerships, addressing long-standing execution risks. Additionally, $8.9B in U.S. government funding and $5B from Nvidia bolster liquidity, enabling aggressive scaling of foundry operations and AI partnerships with Microsoft and Amazon.

Semiconductor Sector Gains Momentum as Intel and AMD Compete for AI Dominance
The semiconductor sector is rallying on AI-driven demand, with Intel’s 2.74% gain outpacing AMD’s 3.28% rise. While AMD benefits from strong PC and data center growth, Intel’s focus on foundry expansion and AI partnerships positions it to capture a larger share of the $975B 2026 semiconductor market. TSMC’s 1.19% rise highlights ongoing demand for advanced nodes, but Intel’s strategic bets on 18A manufacturing and SambaNova integration could narrow its gap with sector leaders.

Leveraged ETFs and High-Gamma Options Highlight Intel's Volatility-Driven Opportunities
• GraniteShares 2x Long INTC Daily ETF (INTW): 5.53% gain, ideal for leveraged exposure
• Direxion Daily INTC Bull 2X ETF (LINT): 0.00% change, limited liquidity
• 200D MA: $26.87 (well below current price), RSI: 35.75 (oversold), MACD: -0.02 (bearish divergence)
Intel’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish trend but long-term bullish setup. Key support at $35.85 and resistance at $44.34. The INTW ETF offers amplified exposure to a potential breakout above $38.62 (20D MA).
Top Options:
• INTC20251226C38
- Call, Strike: $38, Expiry: 12/26
- IV: 37.02% (moderate), Leverage: 63.47%, Delta: 0.411 (moderate), Theta: -0.126 (high decay), Gamma: 0.189 (high sensitivity), Turnover: 76,496
- IV indicates fair volatility, high gamma ensures responsiveness to price swings, and moderate delta balances directional risk.
- Payoff: At 5% upside ($39.14), payoff = $1.14/share. Ideal for short-term bullish bets.
• INTC20251226C39
- Call, Strike: $39, Expiry: 12/26
- IV: 40.07% (high), Leverage: 110.13%, Delta: 0.261 (low), Theta: -0.093 (moderate decay), Gamma: 0.146 (high), Turnover: 15,360
- High leverage and gamma make it sensitive to volatility spikes, while low delta reduces directional risk.
- Payoff: At 5% upside ($39.14), payoff = $0.14/share. Suitable for volatility-driven plays.
Action: Aggressive bulls may consider INTC20251226C38 into a breakout above $38.62, while volatility traders could target INTC20251226C39 for a 5% upside scenario.

Backtest Intel Stock Performance
The backtest of Intel's (INTC) performance after an intraday surge of at least 3% from 2022 to the present shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is 47.19%, indicating a moderate short-term success, the 10-day win rate drops to 46.57% and the 30-day win rate falls further to 51.56%. This suggests that INTC tends to perform well in the immediate aftermath of a significant price increase, but the longer-term returns are lackluster, with a maximum return of only 0.90% over 30 days.

Intel's AI-Driven Turnaround Gains Traction—Position for a Volatile 2026
Intel’s 2.74% rally underscores its AI and foundry turnaround potential, but execution risks remain. The stock’s 35.75 RSI suggests oversold conditions, while the 200D MA at $26.87 highlights long-term value. Investors should monitor the 18A node’s yield improvements and SambaNova integration for catalysts. TSMC’s 1.19% rise signals sector strength, but Intel’s strategic bets could narrow its gap with peers. Action: Buy INTW for leveraged exposure or INTC20251226C38 if $38.62 breaks, targeting $39.14 as a near-term upside threshold.