Intel Surges 2.65% Amid AI Partnership Hype – What’s Fueling the Rally?

Summary
• Intel (INTC) trades at $36.04, up 2.65% intraday, with a high of $36.68 and low of $35.825.
• A $5 billion NVIDIA partnership and $8.9 billion CHIPS Act funding drive optimism.
• Options volume spikes, with 20 contracts trading above $36 strike prices.
• RSI at 28.51 suggests oversold conditions, while MACD (-0.18) hints at bearish momentum.

Intel’s 2.65% rally on November 20, 2025, reflects renewed investor confidence amid strategic AI collaborations and government-backed manufacturing expansion. The stock’s intraday range of $35.825–$36.68 underscores volatility as the market digests NVIDIA’s $5 billion equity investment and Intel’s Panther Lake roadmap. With options activity concentrated near the $36 strike, traders are positioning for a potential breakout above key resistance.

NVIDIA Partnership Ignites Optimism in Intel’s AI Ambitions
Intel’s surge is directly tied to its multi-year collaboration with NVIDIA, announced in September 2025, which includes a $5 billion equity investment and joint development of AI and PC chips. This partnership validates Intel’s 18A manufacturing process and positions it as a key player in the AI infrastructure race. Additionally, the U.S. government’s $8.9 billion CHIPS Act funding and SoftBank’s $2 billion stake have bolstered liquidity, reducing concerns over foundry losses. The market is interpreting these moves as a strategic repositioning to reclaim market share in data center and AI markets, where Intel had previously lagged behind AMD and TSMC.

Semiconductor Sector Rally Led by NVIDIA as Intel Gains Momentum
The semiconductor sector is experiencing a broad upswing, with NVIDIA (NVDA) surging 4.31% intraday as the AI boom accelerates. Intel’s 2.65% gain aligns with sector trends, though it trails NVIDIA’s momentum. TSMC and AMD also show strength, but Intel’s partnership with NVIDIA and government funding differentiate it as a turnaround story. The sector’s 20.6% year-to-year sales growth (per SIA data) underscores AI-driven demand, with Intel’s foundry segment now showing signs of stabilization after nine months of losses.

Options Playbook: Leveraged Calls on Intel’s AI-Driven Rebound
• 200-day average: 25.28 (well below current price)
• RSI: 28.51 (oversold territory)
• MACD: -0.18 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price near middle band (37.95), suggesting consolidation

Intel’s technicals point to a short-term bearish trend but a long-term bullish setup. Key levels to watch include the 30D support at $38.07 and 200D support at $20.47. The RSI’s oversold reading and MACD’s negative histogram suggest a potential rebound, though volume remains below average (9.1M vs. 113M avg).

Top Options Picks:
• INTC20251128C36
- Type: Call
- Strike Price: $36
- Expiration: 2025-11-28
- IV: 47.02% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 30.67%
- Delta: 0.5487 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.1445 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1482 (high sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: 56,078
- Payoff at 5% Upside: $1.80 (max(0, 37.84 - 36))
- Why: High gamma and leverage ratio make this call ideal for a short-term breakout above $36.68.

• INTC20251128C36.5
- Type: Call
- Strike Price: $36.5
- Expiration: 2025-11-28
- IV: 46.61% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 38.91%
- Delta: 0.4738 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.1330 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1503 (high sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: 40,268
- Payoff at 5% Upside: $1.34 (max(0, 37.84 - 36.5))
- Why: Balances leverage and strike price for a conservative play on the 52-week high ($42.48) target.

Action: Aggressive bulls should consider INTC20251128C36 into a break above $36.68. Conservative traders may use INTC20251128C36.5 as a hedge against volatility.

Backtest Intel Stock Performance
Below is the interactive report of Intel’s (INTC) share-price behaviour after every ≥ 3 % single-day surge since 2022.Key take-aways:• 111 surge events identified. • 1-day follow-through: +0.56 % average, 54 % win-rate – modest and statistically weak. • Best edge appears at 2-day horizon (+0.89 %, significant). • Performance fades thereafter; by 30 days the cumulative alpha turns slightly negative vs benchmark. • No clear persistent momentum after a 3 % pop; most benefit is captured within two trading days.Feel free to explore the interactive table/plot above for full distribution and drawdown details.

Intel’s AI Bet: A High-Risk, High-Reward Trade
Intel’s rally is a high-stakes bet on its AI and foundry turnaround, driven by NVIDIA’s partnership and government funding. While technicals suggest a potential rebound from oversold levels, the stock remains vulnerable to sector-wide headwinds, including TSMC’s dominance and AMD’s competitive gains. Investors should monitor the 52-week high ($42.48) and 200D support ($20.47) as key inflection points. With NVIDIA (NVDA) surging 4.31% and leading the semiconductor sector, Intel’s ability to execute on its 18A roadmap will determine whether this rally is sustainable. Watch for a breakout above $36.68 or a breakdown below $35.825 to signal the next move.