Intel Surges 2.2% on Analyst Upgrade and Foundry Breakthrough—Can $60 Be Next?

Summary
• KeyBanc upgrades Intel to 'Overweight' with $60 price target
• Server CPUs sold out amid hyperscaler demand
• Apple rumored to use Intel 18A for low-end M-series chips

Intel (INTC) surged 2.2% to $48.335, trading near its 52-week high of $49, as a bullish analyst upgrade and foundry progress ignited investor optimism. The stock’s intraday range of $47.42–$49.00 reflects strong demand, driven by KeyBanc’s $60 target and Apple’s potential as a foundry client. With Intel’s server CPU business booming and Panther Lake’s success on the horizon, the stock is poised for a breakout.

Analyst Upgrade and Foundry Momentum Fuel Intel's Rally
Intel’s rally was catalyzed by KeyBanc Capital Markets’ upgrade to 'Overweight' and a $60 price target, citing two pivotal developments: (1) surging demand for server CPUs from hyperscalers, with Intel nearly sold out for 2026, and (2) progress in securing Apple as a foundry client. Analyst John Vinh highlighted Apple’s potential use of Intel 18A for low-end M-series chips and future iPhone models, which could validate Intel’s advanced manufacturing capabilities. Additionally, Intel’s shift to higher ASPs for server CPUs and the success of Panther Lake (18A-based) bolstered confidence in its turnaround narrative.

Semiconductor Sector Gains Momentum as Intel Leads Foundry Charge
The broader semiconductor sector, led by AMD’s 0.28% intraday gain, is benefiting from AI-driven demand and foundry competition. Intel’s foundry progress—particularly its 18A node and Apple partnership—positions it to challenge TSMC’s dominance. While AMD and TSMC focus on high-end AI chips, Intel’s server CPU and foundry wins highlight its unique value proposition in a sector increasingly prioritizing advanced manufacturing and AI infrastructure.

Options and ETFs for Capitalizing on Intel's Bullish Momentum
• MACD: 1.78 (above signal line 0.79), indicating bullish momentum
• RSI: 80.03 (overbought), suggesting potential pullback
• Bollinger Bands: Price near upper band ($45.85), signaling overbought conditions
• 200-day MA: $28.18 (far below current price), highlighting long-term strength

Intel’s technicals and news-driven optimism make it a prime candidate for bullish strategies. The Direxion Daily INTC Bull 2X ETF (LINT) offers 2X leverage, ideal for short-term gains. For options, INTC20260123C40 and INTC20260123C41 stand out:

• INTC20260123C40
- Strike: $40, Expiration: 2026-01-23
- IV: 155.65% (high volatility), Leverage: 5.48%, Delta: 0.8137 (high sensitivity), Theta: -0.2910 (rapid time decay), Gamma: 0.0214 (strong price sensitivity)
- Payoff (5% up): $48.335 → $40.45 → $10.45 profit
- Why: High leverage and delta make it ideal for a sharp move above $40.

• INTC20260123C41
- Strike: $41, Expiration: 2026-01-23
- IV: 140.88% (moderate volatility), Leverage: 6.27%, Delta: 0.8033 (high sensitivity), Theta: -0.2825 (rapid decay), Gamma: 0.0244 (strong sensitivity)
- Payoff (5% up): $48.335 → $40.45 → $9.45 profit
- Why: Slightly lower IV but higher leverage and gamma for a controlled breakout.

Aggressive bulls should consider INTC20260123C40 into a test of $40.50.

Backtest Intel Stock Performance
After experiencing a 2% intraday surge from 2022 to the present, Intel's (INTC) performance has shown mixed results in backtested scenarios. The 3-Day win rate is 46.15%, the 10-Day win rate is 46.15%, and the 30-Day win rate is 50.40%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. However, the maximum return during the backtest period was only 0.75%, suggesting that while there is a good chance of positive returns, the overall performance has been modest.

Intel's Rally Gains Traction—Position for a $60 Target
Intel’s rally is underpinned by a perfect storm of analyst upgrades, server CPU demand, and foundry progress. With KeyBanc’s $60 target and Apple’s potential as a client, the stock could break out of its 52-week high of $49. Investors should monitor the 200-day MA ($28.18) as a long-term support level and watch for a close above $49 to confirm the breakout. For context, sector leader AMD rose 0.28% today, underscoring the sector’s strength. Buy LINT or INTC20260123C40 if $40.50 holds.