Intel Stock Plunges 9% Below 200-Day MA As Bearish Signals Intensify

Candlestick Theory
Intel's recent price action exhibits bearish continuation patterns, with two consecutive long red candles dominating the last two sessions. The July 25 candle closed near its low ($20.7) after gapping down from July 24’s close ($22.63), confirming selling pressure. Key resistance now forms between $22.60–$23.50, the consolidation zone preceding the breakdown. Support emerges near $20.36 (July 25 low), aligning with the psychologically significant $20 level. The absence of reversal patterns like hammers or bullish engulfing suggests sustained downward momentum.
Moving Average Theory
Intel trades decisively below all major moving averages – the 50-day (~$22.80), 100-day (~$22.40), and 200-day (~$22.10) – confirming a bearish trend structure. The 50-day crossed below both the 100-day and 200-day MAs in late June, triggering a "death cross" that typically signals extended bearish momentum. With the current price ($20.70) 9% below the 200-day MA, the long-term downtrend remains dominant. Any recovery would need to reclaim the 50-day MA to signal trend reversal potential.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram (-0.45) shows sustained negative momentum, with the signal line consistently above the MACD line since early July. KDJ oscillators (K: 18, D: 22, J: 10) reside deeply in oversold territory. While KDJ readings suggest extreme selling exhaustion, the lack of bullish crossover divergence implies no immediate reversal signal. Both indicators align in confirming bearish pressure, though KDJ’s oversold status increases sensitivity to short-term bounces.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expanded sharply during the July 24–25 sell-off, with price breaking below the lower band (20-day SMA: ~$22.30; lower band: ~$21.00). This deviation typically precedes either a reversion to the mean or sustained momentum breakdowns. The July 23 band squeeze (width contraction to 6%) resolved bearishly, supporting the continuation thesis. A close back inside the bands would signal stabilization.
Volume-Price Relationship
The sell-off’s credibility is reinforced by surging volume, with July 25 volume (244M shares) doubling the 30-day average. Distribution patterns appeared mid-July as rallies to $23.50–$23.60 saw declining volume, while the recent breakdown occurred on expanding volume – a classic bearish confirmation. The absence of capitulatory volume spikes (>300M shares) suggests selling pressure may not be exhausted.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (28.6) breached oversold territory (<30), reaching its lowest level since August 2024. While this may signal excessive selling, RSI can remain oversold during strong downtrends. Notably, RSI failed to reach overbought (>70) during July’s consolidation rallies, reflecting weak buying interest. A bullish divergence would require price making lower lows alongside rising RSI.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to Intel’s decline from the February 18 peak ($27.39) to the July 25 low ($20.36), key retracement levels are: 23.6% ($21.13), 38.2% ($22.00), and 50% ($22.87). The recent breakdown below the 23.6% level ($21.13) strengthens bearish momentum. Confluence exists near $22.00 (38.2% retracement + 20-day SMA), making it a critical resistance zone for potential short-term recoveries.
Confluence and Divergence Summary
Confluence of bearish signals is evident: death cross confirmation, volume-validated breakdown, oversold but non-divergent oscillators, and Fibonacci resistance clustering near key MAs. The sole counterpoint is deep oversold conditions (RSI/KDJ), which may enable technical bounces but lack reversal confirmation. Divergences remain absent across momentum indicators. Given indicator alignment, the path of least resistance skews bearish below $22.60 resistance, with watchpoints at $20.00 psychological support and volume patterns for exhaustion signals.