Intel Shares Surge 11.18% In Two Days On Strong Technical Breakout

Intel (INTC) shares rose 3.78% to close at $37.30 on October 2, 2025, marking a two-day rally of 11.18% on elevated volume, reflecting renewed buying interest after recent consolidation.
Candlestick Theory
The latest session formed a bullish candle with minimal upper shadow ($37.30 close vs $37.57 high), indicating sustained buying pressure. This follows a bullish engulfing pattern on September 25-26 that reversed the downtrend from September's $31.22-$34.48 range. Key support now emerges at $35.44 (October 2 low) and $33.50 (October 1 low), while resistance resides near the $37.57 swing high. The absence of long wicks in the two-day rally suggests conviction in the breakout.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day EMA ($30.21) crossed above the 100-day ($27.84) and 200-day ($23.56) averages in late August, confirming a major trend reversal. Prices are now trading 23% above the 50-day EMA, signaling strong short-term momentum. The ascending slope across all three moving averages with widening gaps reflects a robust bullish phase. The 200-day EMA has trended upward since April 2025, reinforcing the long-term structural shift.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) shows the histogram at +1.15 and rising, with both MACD line (1.62) and signal line (0.47) in positive territory – a bullish configuration. KDJ (9,3,3) registers K=86.2, D=81.4, J=95.8, indicating overbought conditions. However, the sustained K/D separation since September 24 and J-line extension suggest momentum may persist before mean reversion. No bearish divergences are observed relative to price action.
Bollinger Bands
The 20-day bands have expanded sharply (current width 18.5% vs 12.3% two weeks prior), confirming heightened volatility. Price is riding the upper band ($36.44), typically indicative of a strong trend. The September 18-19 contraction to 10.8% width preceded the explosive 22.77% breakout. Sustained upper-band proximity warrants monitoring for exhaustion signals, though no reversal triggers are present.
Volume-Price Relationship
The rally is validated by consecutive above-average volume days: October 1 volume was 15% above the 30-day average, while the September 25 breakout saw 295M shares – the highest since April 2025. Volume on up days has consistently exceeded down days throughout September (ratio 1.28:1), confirming accumulation. The $5.44B turnover on October 1 signals institutional participation in the breakout.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reads 74.3, entering overbought territory. This follows an oversold reading of 28.9 on September 18, creating a "bullish impulse" signature. While extended, RSI hasn't formed negative divergences against the price surge. Historical parallels show INTC maintained RSI >70 for 8 sessions during March 2025’s rally before consolidation. Current momentum may extend despite overbought warnings.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the swing low of $30.16 (September 18) and high of $37.57 (October 2), key retracement levels are $35.82 (23.6%), $34.74 (38.2%), and $33.86 (50%). The $34.74 level aligns with the September 26 high, creating a potential support confluence. In the broader context, the 61.8% retracement of the April-September advance sits at $31.80, reinforcing the significance of September's $31.21-$31.70 support zone during pullbacks.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Multiple indicators confirm bullish momentum: MACD expansion, volume-backed breakout, and moving average alignment reinforce candlestick signals. The RSI and KDJ overbought readings present the only cautionary notes, yet lack corresponding bearish divergences in price structure. Critical support confluence exists at $34.74-$35.44 (Fibonacci + swing high + recent consolidation zone). Should this level hold, the next major resistance awaits near the psychological $40.00 barrier.