Intel's Earnings Report: Critical Price Levels and Strategic Implications for Investors

As Intel Corporation (INTC) prepares to unveil its second-quarter 2025 earnings on July 24, investors face a pivotal juncture. The stock has been trading within a defined ascending channel, marked by higher highs and higher lows since early 2024, while CEO Lip-Bu Tan's restructuring efforts and the foundry business's strategic realignment have added layers of complexity to its valuation. This analysis synthesizes technical price patterns, earnings expectations, and corporate strategy to identify actionable insights for market participants.

Technical Framework: Key Levels and Momentum Signals

Intel's stock has oscillated between critical support and resistance levels, offering a roadmap for potential price action. The 200-day moving average currently sits at $21.81, while the 50-day average is at $21.55, both acting as dynamic baselines. The stock's recent consolidation near $23.10—a 15.21% gain from its year-to-date low—has positioned it at the edge of a multi-month trading range.

• Support Levels:
• $22.00: A psychological floor aligned with the 200-day MA and a historical gap from August 2024. A breakdown here could trigger a retest of $19.00, a key area connecting multiple troughs and representing the floor of the stock's broader range.

• $21.61: A critical stop-loss level for bulls, below which bearish momentum may accelerate.

• Resistance Levels:

• $23.38: A recent pivot high and potential breakout confirmation point. A sustained close above this level could validate a bullish reversal.
• $26.00: A psychological ceiling where three prominent peaks from November to March may generate selling pressure.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in neutral territory at 56.67, suggesting balanced momentum, while the MACD line at 0.50 reinforces a buy signal. Institutional activity is evident in the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) of $20.50, reflecting consensus on fair valuation.

Strategic Shifts: CEO Lip-Bu Tan's Restructuring and Foundry Ambitions

Lip-Bu Tan's leadership has introduced a dual narrative of cost-cutting and strategic refocusing. The CEO's decision to cut 15–20% of the chip manufacturing division—targeting 10,000 employees—has sparked mixed reactions. While short-term operational efficiency is prioritized, the long-term implications for innovation and talent retention remain uncertain.

The foundry business, however, has emerged as a beacon of hope. Q1 2025 revenue reached $4.7 billion, a 7% year-over-year increase, driven by the 18A process technology ramp and the spinout of RealSense. Tan's pivot to outsource global marketing to Accenture and divest non-core units like the automotive chip division underscores a disciplined approach to capital allocation.

Earnings-Driven Momentum: Catalysts and Risks

Analysts anticipate a Q2 2025 loss of $0.14 per share, flat year-over-year, with revenue expected at $11.93 billion. The market will scrutinize two areas:
1. Foundry Progress: Has the 18A process achieved commercial viability?
2. Restructuring Costs: Will write-offs related to chipmaking technology distort earnings?

A positive surprise—such as narrower losses or foundry revenue exceeding $5 billion—could catalyze a rally toward $26–$30. Conversely, a miss on these metrics may force the stock into a bearish phase, testing the $19.00 support.

Actionable Investment Strategy

For bulls, the optimal entry point lies near $22.88, just above the Value Area High (VAH) of $22.85. A breakout above $23.38 would confirm a bullish bias, with immediate targets at $24.50–$25 and a long-term objective of $28.89 (a gap closure from August 2024).

For bears, a breakdown below $21.61 could signal a deeper correction, with targets at $19.00 and potentially $17.67 (the 52-week low).

Conclusion: Balancing Optimism and Caution

Intel's earnings report will serve as a litmus test for its turnaround strategy. While the foundry business and Tan's restructuring efforts offer long-term potential, near-term volatility is inevitable. Investors should remain anchored to key technical levels and adjust positions based on earnings-driven signals. In a market where macroeconomic uncertainty persists, disciplined risk management—via stop-loss orders and profit-taking at pivotal resistance—will be paramount.

The path ahead is neither certain nor simple, but for those who navigate it with rigor, the rewards could be substantial.