Intel's 8.6% Surge: A Black Friday Rally Driven by Apple Partnership Hints and Sector Momentum

Summary
• Intel (INTC) surges 8.6% on Black Friday, hitting an intraday high of $40.04
• Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo signals potential Apple-Intel foundry partnership for M-series chips
• Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund and PZU boost Intel holdings, pushing institutional ownership to 64.5%

Intel's Black Friday rally defies market norms, with shares surging over 8% amid a mix of strategic partnership speculation and institutional buying. The stock's intraday range—from $37.35 to $40.04—reflects heightened volatility driven by analyst reports and legal developments involving TSMC. With the semiconductor sector showing mixed momentum, Intel's move stands out as a blend of speculative optimism and structural positioning.

Analyst Report Sparks Optimism for Intel-Apple Foundry Partnership
Intel's explosive 8.6% gain stems from Ming-Chi Kuo's report suggesting the chipmaker could supply Apple's M-series processors starting in 2027. This potential partnership, tied to Apple's 'Made in USA' initiative, has reinvigorated investor sentiment for Intel Foundry Services. The report highlights Intel's role in manufacturing low-end M processors for MacBook Air and iPad Pro models, with shipments potentially reaching 20 million units annually. This development counters recent legal tensions with TSMC, where Intel faces allegations of trade secret misuse, and positions Intel as a long-term beneficiary of U.S. manufacturing incentives.

Semiconductor Sector Gains Momentum as Intel Outperforms TSMC
The semiconductor sector saw mixed performance, with Intel's 8.6% rally outpacing TSMC's 0.54% gain. While TSMC faces legal scrutiny over alleged trade secret leaks involving former executive Wei-Jen Lo, Intel's partnership with Apple and U.S. government-backed manufacturing incentives position it as a sector leader. The CHIPS Act's $16 billion in incentives for Intel further differentiates its growth trajectory from peers reliant on external foundries. This divergence highlights Intel's strategic alignment with geopolitical manufacturing trends.

Options Playbook: Leveraging High-Leverage Calls and Gamma-Driven Contracts
• 200-day average: 25.67 (well below current price)
• RSI: 48.01 (neutral zone)
• MACD: -0.299 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 39.985 (near upper band at 40.717)

Intel's technicals suggest a short-term bullish breakout, with the 200-day SMA acting as a strong support. The RSI's neutrality and MACD's bearish divergence indicate potential for a rebound. Key levels to watch include the 38.04–38.21 short-term support and the 20.47–20.94 long-term support. The absence of leveraged ETF data shifts focus to options, where high-gamma and high-theta contracts offer strategic entry points.

Top Option 1: INTC20251205C39
• Contract Code: INTC20251205C39
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $39
• Expiration: 2025-12-05
• IV: 51.16% (moderate)
• Leverage Ratio: 22.24% (high)
• Delta: 0.653 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.1917 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.1218 (high sensitivity to price movement)
• Turnover: 3,695,715 (high liquidity)
• Payoff at 5% upside ($41.98): $2.98 per contract
• This call option offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on a continuation of the bullish trend. The high gamma ensures responsiveness to price swings, while the moderate delta reduces directional risk.

Top Option 2: INTC20251205C38.5
• Contract Code: INTC20251205C38.5
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $38.5
• Expiration: 2025-12-05
• IV: 51.76% (moderate)
• Leverage Ratio: 18.71% (high)
• Delta: 0.7117 (high sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.1972 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.1113 (high sensitivity to price movement)
• Turnover: 2,479,969 (high liquidity)
• Payoff at 5% upside ($41.98): $3.48 per contract
• This contract provides a lower strike price for increased intrinsic value, with high gamma and delta amplifying gains during upward momentum. The high turnover ensures ease of entry/exit, making it a robust choice for aggressive bulls.

Aggressive bulls should consider INTC20251205C38.5 into a breakout above $40.04, while conservative traders may target INTC20251205C39 for a measured rally.

Backtest Intel Stock Performance
The event-based back-test engine returned an internal error (“ get_asset_price ”), so the calculation did not complete.Two ways we can proceed:1. Retry with a modified call to the event engine (sometimes the backend expects a different price field setting).2. Use the strategy back-test engine instead: treat every ≥ 9 % intraday-surge day as an “open” signal and close the position after a fixed holding window you specify (e.g., 1, 3, 5, 10 or N trading days). • This will still show average P&L, hit ratio, max drawdown, etc., and avoids the node that triggered the error.Please let me know which route you’d like to take (or suggest a different one), and—if you prefer the strategy approach—how many days you’d like to hold after each surge (or any other exit rule you have in mind).

Bullish Momentum Suggests Holding Long Positions as Intel Targets $42.50
Intel's 8.6% surge reflects a confluence of strategic partnership optimism and institutional backing, with technicals favoring a continuation of the rally. The 200-day SMA at $25.67 and Bollinger Bands near $40.717 suggest a strong near-term target at $42.50. TSMC's 0.54% gain underscores sector resilience, but Intel's unique positioning in U.S. manufacturing and Apple's supply chain gives it an edge. Investors should hold long positions with a stop-loss below $37.35 to protect gains. Watch for a breakout above $42.50 to confirm a new bullish phase.