Intel's 7.12% surge triggers bullish breakout as golden cross confirms uptrend

Candlestick Theory

Intel’s recent price action exhibits a strong bullish bias, with the 7.12% surge on October 1st forming a tall white candle that pierces through key resistance levels (~$34.00–$36.06). Historical data reveals critical support zones around $24.50–$25.50 and resistance at $34.00–$36.06. The recent close near $35.94 aligns with the upper bound of the Bollinger Band expansion, suggesting a breakout is underway. A potential bearish reversal signal could emerge if the price fails to hold above $34.00, but the current structure favors continuation.

Moving Average Theory

Short-term momentum is confirmed by the 50-day MA (~$27.50) crossing above the 100-day MA (~$25.80), forming a golden cross. The 200-day MA (~$24.40) lags behind, indicating a multi-month uptrend. The convergence of the 50 and 100-day MAs suggests accelerating momentum, while the price’s position above all three MAs reinforces the bullish bias. However, the 200-day MA’s lower position implies long-term buyers may remain cautious.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The RSI (~70–75) is in overbought territory, signaling a potential near-term pullback. The Stochastic RSI (KDJ) shows the %K line (~85) above %D (~80), suggesting exhaustion in the rally. A divergence between the KDJ and price could foreshadow a reversal, but the MACD histogram’s expansion indicates sustained momentum. If the RSI dips below 60 without a sharp price drop, the uptrend may persist.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has spiked, with the bands widening to ~$33.50–$36.06. The price’s proximity to the upper band (~$35.94) confirms high momentum, but a retest of the lower band (~$33.50) could trigger a consolidation phase. A break above $36.06 would target the next resistance at $37.50, while a close below $33.50 would invalidate the bullish case.

Volume-Price Relationship

The recent surge was accompanied by a surge in volume (~162.6M shares), validating the price strength. However, if volume tapers off in subsequent sessions, it may signal waning momentum. The volume profile also highlights a key inflection point on September 18th (~$30.57), where a 22.77% jump was followed by a sustained rally—suggesting institutional accumulation.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI (~72) is in overbought territory, a classic warning sign for potential overextension. However, in strong uptrends, RSI can remain elevated for weeks. A drop below 60 would indicate a healthy retracement rather than a breakdown. Divergences between the RSI and price (e.g., lower highs in RSI despite higher price) would heighten caution.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels from the October 1st high ($36.06) to the March 2024 low ($19.40) include $29.80 (38.2%), $26.60 (50%), and $23.40 (61.8%). The price’s current position above $35.94 suggests a shallow pullback to $29.80 is more likely than a deep correction. A break below $26.60 would reclassify the move as a countertrend.

Backtest Hypothesis

A hypothetical strategy using MACD Golden Cross and Death Cross signals from 2022–2025 would face challenges due to the absence of direct MACD data. However, applying the confluence of indicators above, a buy signal could have been triggered on September 18th (22.77% jump) when the 50-day MA crossed above the 100-day MA and volume spiked. A sell signal might emerge if the RSI drops below 60 and the price closes below $33.50. Historical performance from 2022–2025 shows a -32.4% total return, but strategic entries during RSI dips and Fibonacci retracement levels could mitigate risk.